Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For March 15, 2022

Editor’s Note: The Daily Brief is a free glimpse into the prevailing fundamental and technical drivers of U.S. equity market products. Join the 200+ that read this report daily, below!

What Happened

Overnight, equity index futures explored lower prices alongside most commodities. Bonds and implied volatility metrics were bid, also.

The narrative is that this is follow-on selling as participants look to price in the implications of COVID-19 lockdowns in China, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Arguably, there is some pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) positioning going on, too.

Ahead is data on the Producer Price Index and Empire State Manufacturing (8:30 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:15 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. Levels may have changed since initially quoted; click here for the latest levels. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. Learn the implications of volatility, direction, and moneyness. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive, then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect

Fundamental: Keeping it short, today. Please check out Monday’s commentary, if you haven’t!

Weak start to 2022 as participants look to price slower growth and inflation, tighter monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, a resurgence in COVID-19, potential Russian defaults, and beyond.

Graphic: Via S&P Global Inc (NYSE: SPGI). 

Bolstering inflation pressures are supply-demand challenges. For instance, geopolitical tensions are stifling vehicle production here in the U.S.

Graphic: Via S&P Global Inc (NYSE: SPGI). 

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, gas in the U.S. climbed about $0.80/gallon, also, prompting talk of gas tax holidays.

Graphic: Via Reuters.

Pursuant to these remarks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) economists suggest the probability of recession in the next year is between 20-35% while Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) strategists see equity valuations overshooting to the downside with out of control inflation.

Graphic: Via Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

In opposition, JPMorgan Chase & Co’s (NYSE: JPM) Marko Kolanovic suggests there is too much negativity priced in and that investors should add equity risk

“We believe that the past month’s correction has induced too much negativity in markets, e.g., reflected by our market-implied recession probabilities, on the fear that growth will be severely affected by the war. We stay with a pro-risk stance as we do not believe that we will see a recession or that we have entered a sustained bear market.”

Graphic: Via Bloomberg. “A Moody’s Analytics computer model suggests that the U.S. as a whole would be able to avoid a recession, even if military hostilities are prolonged.”

Positioning: Per Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s derivatives team, “puts are more overvalued than any time over the past five years.”

Graphic: Via SpotGamma. “Netting call & put delta, you can see we’re near extremes in terms of put:call positions. Often large put positions are removed by expirations, which seems to coincide with market lows. Many of these are quarterly expirations which coincide w/FOMC meetings – such as next week.”

Further, it is expected that the compression of volatility (via passage of FOMC), as well as the removal of customer puts and (accordingly) counterparty negative gamma exposure (OPEX) may serve to alleviate some of this pressure.

Graphic: Via Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS). Taken from The Market Ear. “18-Mar has more expiring near-the-money SPX open interest than any expiration since 2019.”

In taking the other side of this demand for protection, counterparties carry exposure to positive delta and negative gamma (losses amplified to the downside). In hedging their own exposure, counterparties will sell underlying(s), and this is where the aforementioned pressure arises.

Graphic: SqueezeMetrics details the implications of customer activity in the options market, on the underlying’s order book. For instance, in selling a put, customers add liquidity and stabilize the market. How? The market maker long the put will buy (sell) the underlying to neutralize directional risk as price falls (rises).

Given present supply and demand conditions (customer hedging in months prior), the incremental pressure counterparties add with each leg lower is less, if you will. 

Here’s a good explanation:

“When implied volatility is high, that same 1% move lower is much more ‘expected’ so there generally won’t be the same upward pressure on volatility and in fact it might decline,” said Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group LLP.

“Along the same lines, investors at that point have had more opportunity and time to hedge, so those same market moves may not lead to as much hedging activity.”

Pictured: SqueezeMetrics highlights implications of volatility, direction, and moneyness.

Adding to that last remark, as Amy Wu Silverman of Royal Bank of Canada’s (NYSE: RY) capital markets group puts it well: “You’re also seeing people selling that volatility and doing some overwriting. That can probably dampen volatility.”

Graphic: SpotGamma’s Hedging Impact of Real-Time Options (HIRO) indicator for QQQ shows strong put selling 3/14/2022. Divergences often precede reversals in the underlying.

There is the potential, according to SpotGamma, for some “path dependency,” however, as “the expiration and/or covering of a large swath of these put hedges may place the market back into an ‘underhedged’ position.” In such a case, new demand would add fuel to weakness.

Technical: As of 6:15 AM ET, Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), in the S&P 500, will likely open in the middle part of a negatively skewed overnight inventory, inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap Scenarios: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades higher; activity above the $4,129.50 overnight low (ONL) puts in play the $4,177.25 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the $4,177.25 HVNode could reach as high as the $4,227.75 HVNode and $4,249.25 LVNode, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,129.50 ONL puts in play the $4,101.25 ONL. Initiative trade beyond the ONL could reach as low as the $4,069.25 HVNode and $4,055.75 LVNode, or lower.

Considerations: Push-and-pull, as well as responsiveness near key-technical areas (that are discernable visually on a chart), suggests technically-driven traders with short time horizons are very active. 

Such traders often lack the wherewithal to defend retests and, additionally, the type of trade may be indicative of the other time frame participants waiting for more information to initiate trades.

Click here to load today’s key levels into the web-based TradingView charting platform. Note that all levels are derived using the 65-minute timeframe. New links are produced, daily.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

Definitions

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, mentorship, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets.

Capelj is also a Benzinga finance and technology reporter interviewing the likes of Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, JC2 Ventures’ John Chambers, FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, and ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, as well as a SpotGamma contributor developing insights around impactful options market dynamics.

Disclaimer

Physik Invest does not carry the right to provide advice.

In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For February 15, 2022

Editor’s Note: The Daily Brief is a free glimpse into the prevailing fundamental and technical drivers of U.S. equity market products. Join the 200+ that read this report daily, below!

What Happened

Overnight, equity index futures auctioned sharply higher after Russia announced a pullback of some forces near Ukraine.

Ahead is data on the Producer Price Index and Empire State Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:30 AM ET. Sentiment Risk-On if expected /ES open is above the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. Levels may have changed since initially quoted; click here for the latest levels. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. Learn the implications of volatility, direction, and moneyness. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive, then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect

Fundamental: In the face of what participants feel will be an aggressive wave of monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions, markets had sold.

The number of interest-rate increases implied by the market for overnight index swaps, according to Bloomberg, increased to seven. Higher rates ding valuations, hurting most high-flying technology stocks and junk bonds.

Graphic: Via The Macro Compass – The 5y-30y OIS curve, which is may eventually invert, “trades at a meager 16 bps and Powell didn’t remove the hawkish Fed tail risks (e.g. 50 bps hike in March or hiking at every meeting) and validated the aggressive hiking cycle pricing amidst a clear slowdown in economic growth impulse.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co strategists led by Marko Kolanovic suggest what the market is pricing will not materialize. 

“We believe risky asset markets have mostly adjusted to monetary policy shifts by now,” the JPMorgan analysts wrote. “Short-term rates markets have likely moved too far vs. what CBs will ultimately deliver in hikes this year.”  

The team at JPMorgan concludes that though the risk of conflict in Ukraine is high, the impact on global equity markets would be limited and “likely prompt a dovish reassessment by CBs.” 

“We expect risky asset markets to rebound as they digest these risks and sentiment improves, aided by inflows from systematic investors and corporate buybacks.” 

Graphic: Sentiment via Bloomberg.

Pursuant to those remarks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) “saw the largest net buying since late December (+1.0SDs), driven by risk-on flows with long buys outpacing short sales 8 to 1.”

“All regions were net bought led by North America (driven by long buys) and to a lesser extent DM Asia (driven by short covers). 8 of 11 global sectors were net bought led in $ terms by Info Tech, Materials, Financials, and Consumer Disc. Net buying in US Info Tech continued this week.”

Positioning: As much as this newsletter sounds like a broken record, not much has changed in terms of positioning.

Lower prices and higher implied volatility (the byproduct of demand for protection) compounded macro flows, exacerbating weakness.

Graphic: SqueezeMetrics details the implications of customer activity in the options market, on the underlying’s order book.

According to options modeling and analysis provider SpotGamma, “When long a put, investors are offered the potential to make asymmetric payouts. They are long gamma and have positive exposure to convexity.”

Dealers, on the other side, have the potential to realize multiplied losses if markets trade down. 

“To protect against ‘blowout’ situations, dealers can and will buy puts against their existing exposure. At a certain point, the convexity of the dealers’ own insurance kicks in and basically reduces the amount of added hedges needed on increases in volatility or lower markets.”

Therefore, markets have reached a potential lower bound, in light of this dynamic. Participants, en masse, would have to commit more capital to strike prices much further down and out in time to indirectly add pressure.

Taking into account this options positioning, versus buying pressure (measured via short sales or liquidity provision on the market-making side), positioning metrics remain positively skewed.

Graphic: Data SqueezeMetrics. Graph via Physik Invest.

To conclude, the dip lower and demand for protection may prime the market for upside (when volatility starts to compress again and counterparties unwind hedges to put-heavy exposures). 

Technical: As of 6:30 AM ET, Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), in the S&P 500, will likely open in the upper part of a positively skewed overnight inventory, outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap Scenarios: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades higher; activity above the $4,438.00 puts in play the $4,499.00 untested point of control (VPOC). Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as high as the $4,526.25 high volume area (HVNode) and $4,565.00 VPOC, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,438.00 puts in play the $4,393.75 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as low as the $4,365.00 POC and $4,332.25 HVNode, or lower.

Click here to load today’s key levels into the web-based TradingView charting platform. Note that all levels are derived using the 65-minute timeframe. New links are produced, daily.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

What People Are Saying

Definitions

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, mentorship, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets.

Capelj is also a Benzinga finance and technology reporter interviewing the likes of Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, JC2 Ventures’ John Chambers, FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, and ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, as well as a SpotGamma contributor developing insights around impactful options market dynamics.

Disclaimer

Physik Invest does not carry the right to provide advice.

In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For October 14, 2021

Update: This morning’s 7:55 AM ET release of the newsletter failed to include updated S&P 500 levels in the very first graphic, below. That graphic has been updated, now. Sorry!

Market Commentary

Equity index, commodity, bond futures trade sideways to higher. Volatility ebbs.

  • Consumer prices rose. Taper in play.
  • Ahead: Claims, PPI data, Fed speak.

What Happened: After news that consumer prices rose more than expected, alongside the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes which revealed an intent to taper asset purchases, U.S. stock index futures auctioned higher.

Ahead is data on jobless claims and the producer price index (8:30 AM ET). After is Fed-speak by Lorie Logan (12:00 PM ET), Tom Barkin (1:00 PM ET), and Patrick Harker (6:00 PM ET).

Graphic updated 6:30 AM ET. Sentiment Risk-On if expected /ES open is above the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:30 AM ET, Thursday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap Scenarios: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on positive intraday breadth and divergent market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred; after numerous sessions of a minimum separation in value (i.e., the area where 70% of the day’s volume occurred) failed to support downside price discovery, participants took back Monday’s spike and weak close

The activity now puts in play the minimal excess high just short of the $4,408.75 low volume area (LVNode), as well as the $4,415.00 untested point of control (VPOC), two areas where initiative buyers were unable to counter the fading momentum from short covering.

Looking across the spectrum, the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 are firming, relative to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, two indices that held the relative strength mantle, prior. 

This rotation, if we will, may support sideways-to-higher trade in the coming sessions as participants clash head-on with the 50.00% and 61.80% Fibonacci retracements, levels that overlap key anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) levels.

Note: VWAP is a metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs. We look to buy above a flat/rising VWAP pinch. Sell below a flat/declining VWAP pinch.
Graphic: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) top left, Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQ) top right, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM) bottom left, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE: DIA) bottom right. Spending more than a few hours of trade above trend, VWAP (yellow), and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement suggest good odds of upside continuation.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of weakness into a seasonally bullish cycle of rebalancing and earnings

Some risks include the prospects of tapering off asset purchases, next month, alongside dangerous inflation pressures, as indicated by minutes from the FOMC meeting last month.

“Markets took the hint. Two-year yields are their highest since March last year, when the pandemic first hit,” said Bloomberg’s John Authers. “Meanwhile, the 10-year yield retreated from an approach toward its post-pandemic high. The two-year reflects the now-strong likelihood that the Fed will raise rates within the next two years; the 10-year reflects concerns about growth.” 

In terms of positioning, conditions may be supportive. 

Moreover, for today, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,381.25 LVNode puts in play the $4,393.75 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as high as the $4,415.00 VPOC and $4,437.75 micro composite point of control (MCPOC), or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,381.25 LVNode puts in play the $4,360.25 LVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $4,360.25 LVNode could reach as low as the $4,349.00 VPOC and $4,330.25 LVNode, or lower.

Click here to load today’s updated real-time key levels into the web-based TradingView charting platform. Please note that all levels are derived using the 65-minute timeframe.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:30 AM ET.

Definitions

Spikes: Spike’s mark the beginning of a break from value. Spikes higher (lower) are validated by trade at or above (below) the spike base (i.e., the origin of the spike).

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

MCPOCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous day sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

Value-Area Placement: Perception of value unchanged if value overlapping (i.e., inside day). Perception of value has changed if value not overlapping (i.e., outside day). Delay trade in the former case.

News And Analysis

Consumer prices rise more than expected as energy costs surge.

Global minimum tax pact ups the chance of multinational tax hike.

Global gas crisis is spilling over into the oil markets, IEA explains.

China’s power cuts stressing economic growth and supply chains.

Federal Reserve officials seeing mid-November, December taper.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For August 13, 2021

Editor’s Note: Happy Friday! If you found today’s note helpful, consider sharing!

Market Commentary

Equity index futures are sideways to higher on light volume and poor structure.

  • Themes of inflation, jobs, and liquidity.
  • Ahead: Import Price Index, Sentiment.
  • Yields drop; Nasdaq 100 strengthens.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways to higher alongside a dip in yields after data revealed persistence in business-related inflationary pressures and a drop in jobless claims.

“While inflation has been the overarching theme this week, U.S. jobless data from yesterday highlighted the improving employment backdrop as well,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) in London. “Yesterday’s U.S. producer prices surprised to the upside, highlighting the ongoing inflationary pressures from ever-rising commodity costs and supply chain bottlenecks.”

Ahead is data on the import price index (8:30 AM ET) and University of Michigan sentiment (10:00 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:45 AM ET. Sentiment Risk-On if expected /ES open is above the prior day’s range. See here for more on the Dark Pool Index (DPI) and Gamma (GEX). A higher DPI approximation is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX approximation, the more volatility. SHIFT data used for options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if green and more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:45 AM ET, Friday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a higher potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on weak intraday breadth and market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade above the $4,434.75 low volume area (LVNode). This is significant because the aforementioned advance and overnight gap occurred in the face of light volume, poor structure, and unsupportive breadth.

Gap Scenarios In Play: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.
Graphic: Multi-timeframe analysis of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000, as well as breadth metrics on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges.
Graphic: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) market liquidity via Bookmap.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of liquidity concerns. This theme’s implications on price are contradictory; to elaborate, the gap between the rates of growth in the supply of money and the gross domestic product turned negative for the first time since 2018. 

“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” said Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer.

Graphic: According to Bloomberg, “While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis — a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” — begs for caution.”

Moreover, for today, given expectations of middling volatility and responsive trade, amid Friday’s options expiration (OPEX), participants may make use of the following frameworks.

Options Expiration (OPEX): Option expiries mark an end to pinning (i.e, the theory that market makers and institutions short options move stocks to the point where the greatest dollar value of contracts will expire worthless) and the reduction dealer gamma exposure.

Responsive Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) in response to prices below (above) an area of recent price acceptance.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,453.75 high volume area (HVNode) pivot puts in play the $4,459.75 overnight high (ONH). Initiative trade beyond the ONH could reach as high as the $4,470.75 and $4,483.75 Fibonacci extensions.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,453.75 HVNode pivot puts in play the $4,447.25 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as low as the $4,439.00 untested point of control (VPOC) and $4,430.00, a visual low likely generated by short-term (i.e., technically driven) participants who may be unable to defend retests.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Initiative Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) within or above (below) the previous day’s value area.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:45 AM ET.

News And Analysis

Traders pile into tail-risk bets that Fed will not hike.

U.S. high yield default rate lowest start in 14 years.

The Treasury market keeps on humbling investors.

COVID downside risks are less than in prior waves.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For August 12, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures sideways overnight.

  • Bond and equity volatility diverge.
  • Ahead: Claims, PPI, and WASDE.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways to higher after the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and progress on stimulus. 

Ahead is data on jobless claims, as well as the PPI and latest WASDE report. 

Graphic updated 6:45 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. See here for more on the Dark Pool Index and Gamma. A positive Dark Pool Index reading is bullish. At the same time, the higher (lower) the gamma, the less (more) volatility. SHIFT Search data used for options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if green and more (less) positive then more (less) was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a reading of the CBOE Volatility Index from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:45 AM ET, Thursday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by initiative trade above the $4,422.75 balance area high (BAH), to the $4,443.50 overnight high (ONH). Thereafter, the S&P 500, in particular, traded sideways on strong intraday breadth, evidenced by an inflow into stocks that were up versus down.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

In comparison to the stronger S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq 100 traded to a new two-day low, this week, amidst a divergence in equity and bond market volatility, as well as a general rise in rates.

Notwithstanding, despite the S&P 500 continuing to make higher highs in the face of strong inflows and equity buybacks, among other things, trade has been mechanical, halting short of visual references. 

Given that this trade suggests the participants involved are short-term (i.e., technically driven) in nature, caution exists on the entry of longer-term, fundamentally driven participants who deem prices to be too high and unfair.

Further, for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,434.75 low volume area (LVNode) pivot puts in play the $4,443.50 overnight high (ONH). Initiative trade beyond the ONH could reach as high as the Fibonacci extensions at $4,446.25 and $4,449.25.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,434.75 LVNode puts in play the $4,429.25 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as low as the $4,422.75 balance area high (BAH) and $4,415.75 LVNode.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Initiative Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) within or above (below) the previous day’s value area.
Graphic: 30-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Graphic updated 6:45 AM ET.

News And Analysis

China goes after online insurance amid wide crackdown.

U.S. infrastructure bill to provide a small boost to growth.

Traders brace for a debt ceiling ‘hot potato’ rattling rates.

China has partly shut down the world’s third-busiest port.

Delta variant is bringing a midsummer pause for airfares.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.