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What Happened
Overnight, futures for commodities, the equity indexes, and bonds were weak. There was no salvation in different assets. Instead, the realized correlation, across markets, tightened.
This is on the heels of inflation data updates that have traders pricing a 50-50 odds for a 75 basis point interest rate hike in July, after a 50 basis point hike this month.
That said, Ben Bernanke, who is a former Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, said monetary policy leaders may be able to sidestep a big recession, expressing hopes that improvements in supply chains, among other things, would help rein inflation.
In other news, Chinese military officials warned their U.S. counterparts to avoid the Taiwan Strait and dismissed the need for the United Nations to review labor standards in the Xinjiang region.
This is as Britain’s economy unexpectedly shrank and Russia claims it has destroyed U.S. and European weapons stores in Ukraine. Additionally, despite OPEC+’s modest output gains, the average price of a gallon of gas rose to over $5 per gallon in the U.S.
This output shock is likely to last into 2023 with gas potentially reaching as high as $6-$7.
Interestingly, as an aside, power grid operators in the Midwest are suggesting rolling blackouts in the coming years. This is just as power use in the South hit all-time records.
Ahead is data on inflation expectations (11:00 AM ET). This week’s focus is on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy decisions and large derivative expirations.
What To Expect
Fundamental: The CPI report was released Friday.
Expected was an 8.2% rise year-over-year (YoY) and 0.7% month-over-month (MoM). Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) was to rise by 5.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM, respectively.
Officially, the headline number rose to 8.6%, and, the same day, consumer sentiment dropped to record lows while expectations for inflation (5-10 years from now) jumped 0.3%.
As Bloomberg’s John Authers put it well, the report’s details “were if anything even more alarming. There’s no way around it; this was a bad report.”
Subsequently, a key part of the U.S. yield curve turned upside down while traders priced more tightening by September (i.e., two 50 basis point hikes and one that is potentially 75 basis points), selling nearly everything but the U.S. dollar.
Early last week, after commentaries resumed, we talked about the reach for cash amid poor safety in fixed income and stock price declines.
Ultimately, to quote Joseph Wang who was a trader at the Fed, an increase in the RRP (reverse repo) and QT (which is a direct flow of capital to capital markets) “would drain the pool of bank deposits by ~$1t by year-end,” and this may prompt investors to “continue to lower their selling prices to compete for the cash they want.”
“Inflation is eating margins, eating consumer demand, and causing the dramatic monetary tightening we are witnessing. None of this is good for stocks,” said James Athey of Abrdn.
“There is still much downside to come.”
Positioning: In short, prior-mentioned supply and demand dynamics resulted in divergences between the volatility that the market realizes (RVOL) and that which is implied (IVOL).
Basically, participants are hedged and volatility remains well-supplied, due in part to suppressive volatility selling, as well as passive flows supporting the largest index constituents.
Consequently, the market’s descent has been orderly and not exacerbated by the demand for hedges and associated repricings of volatility.
This was expected, per Kai Volatility Cem Karsan’s commentary published in December 2021.
Accordingly, for “divergences in RVOL and IVOL to resolve, it would likely take forced selling,” as I explained in a recent SpotGamma commentary.
This is similar to the happenings of the Global Financial Crisis when, according to The Ambrus Group’s Kris Sidial, “vol slowly [ground] until the eventual October 2008 move (i.e., Lehman).”
“The markets were understanding that there was a change going on, especially in credit. But that risk was discounted until it was forced into realization.”
In light of this, on June 8, we talked about long volatility structures (that, one, either sold very short-dated pre-FOMC and OPEX volatility to fund that which is farther-dated or, two, buy into implied skew convexity, non-linear with respect to delta [gamma] and vega [volga] changes).
Why would you do that?
When you think there is to be an outsized move in the underlying, relative to what is priced, you buy options (positive exposure to gamma) so that you may have gains that are potentially amplified in case of directional movement.
When you think there is to be an outsized move in the implied volatility, relative to what is priced, you buy options (positive exposure to volga) so that you may have gains that are potentially amplified in case of implied volatility repricing.
Ultimately, “liquidity providers’ response to demand for protection (en masse) would, then, likely exacerbate the move and aid in the repricing of volatility to levels where there would be more stored energy to catalyze a rally.”
More on these dynamics later this week.
Technical: As of 6:30 AM ET, Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), in the S&P 500, will likely open in the lower part of a negatively skewed overnight inventory, outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.
In the best case, the S&P 500 trades higher; activity above the $3,808.50 HVNode puts in play the $3,836.25 LVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $3,836.25 LVNode could reach as high as the $3,863.25 LVNode and $3,911.00 VPOC, or higher.
In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $3,808.50 HVNode puts in play the $3,768.25 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $3,768.25 HVNode could reach as low as the $3,727.75 and $3,688.75 HVNode, or lower.
Click here to load today’s key levels into the web-based TradingView charting platform. Note that all levels are derived using the 65-minute timeframe. New links are produced, daily.
Definitions
Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test.
If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.
Point Of Control: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
Micro Composite Point Of Control: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous day sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
Volume-Weighted Average Prices (VWAPs): A metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.
About
After years of self-education, strategy development, mentorship, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets.
Capelj also develops insights around impactful options market dynamics at SpotGamma and is a Benzinga reporter.
Some of his works include conversations with ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, investors Kevin O’Leary and John Chambers, FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, Kai Volatility’s Cem Karsan, The Ambrus Group’s Kris Sidial, among many others.
Disclaimer
In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.
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