Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For September 21, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures trade higher with commodities and yields. Volatility ebbs. 

  • Ahead is a 2-day FOMC meeting.
  • SPX below balance, 50-day SMA.
  • Conditions slowly start improving.

What Happened: End of day rally continued overnight with U.S. stock index futures negating much of yesterday’s liquidation. This comes alongside news questioning Evergrande’s ability to make good on its liabilities, as well as the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.

Ahead is data on building permits, housing starts, and the current account (8:30 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:40 AM ET. Sentiment Risk-On if expected /ES open is above the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:40 AM ET, Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a higher potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap Scenarios In Play: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

During the prior day’s regular trade, on weak intraday breadth and divergent market liquidity metrics, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade below yesterday’s pivot, the $4,365.25 low volume area (LVNode). 

This trade is significant because it was an acceptance of the overnight gap, a willingness to transact at lower prices. We’re carrying forward the presence of emotional, multiple distribution structures left behind the initiative trade. Also, though the selling covered a lot of ground, it was measured and the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) is now down 20% from Monday’s peak. 

To note, coming into Monday’s liquidation, according to SqueezeMetrics, “the current combination of weak put flows and large customer vanna exposure” was fragile; “Historically, this means SPX down, VIX up.”

Adding, according to SpotGamma, it’s likely Monday’s liquidation was a combination of equity de-risking, combined with short gamma from options positioning. See definition below.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) support that belief: “The market sell-off that escalated overnight we believe is primarily driven by technical selling flows in an environment of poor liquidity, and overreaction of discretionary traders to perceived risks.”

Graphic: Tier1Alpha market research graphic via The Market Ear.

Coming into Tuesday’s regular trade, conditions have improved; now, the focus is the September 21-22 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ending Wednesday.

Moreover, for today, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,365.25 LVNode pivot puts in play the $4,393.75 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as high as the $4,425.00 untested point of control (VPOC) and $4,481.75 HVNode, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,365.25 LVNode puts in play the $4,346.75 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as low as the $4,294.00 regular trade low (RTH Low) and $4,233.00 VPOC, or lower.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:40 AM ET.

Definitions

Gamma: To note, gamma is the sensitivity of an option to changes in the underlying price. Those that take the other side and warehouse these risks hedge their exposure by buying and selling the underlying. When dealers are short-gamma, they hedge by buying into strength and selling into weakness. When dealers are long-gamma, they hedge by selling into strength and buying into weakness. The former exacerbates volatility. The latter calms volatility.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

News And Analysis

Megacap tech selloff hits $500B since Nasdaq 100 peak. 

Fintech SPACs pick up as revenue clarity allays concern.

J&J said a second COVID shot boosts protection to 94%.

Wall Street’s message on Evergrande: China has control.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For September 20, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures, commodities, and yields trade lower.

  • Concerns around the debt ceiling.
  • SPX below balance, 50-day SMA.
  • Ahead is a 2-day FOMC meeting.
  • Today we receive NAHB updates.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower alongside commodities and yields as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen seeks to raise or suspend the debt ceiling alongside Evergrande fears.

Ahead is data on the National Association of Home Builders Index (10:00 AM ET).

Graphic updated 7:15 AM ET. Sentiment Risk-Off if expected /ES open is below the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 7:15 AM ET, Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a high potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap Scenarios In Play: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

During the prior week’s trade, on weak breadth, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by a balance-area breakout and separation of value below the S&P 500’s 50-day simple moving average (i.e., a visual level likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants who generally are unable to defend retests).

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of a waning economic recovery, heightened valuations in the face of strong EPS expectations, the prospects of stimulus reduction, non-seasonally aligned flows, impactful options and equity market dynamics, divergent sentiment, as well as fears of a mid-cycle transition.

A key risk, as highlighted by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is the debt ceiling which, if not resolved, some economists argue “that an announcement on tapering is likely to be delayed to December, and that Treasury yields could fall further as a result.”

We note that – as Goldman Sachs writes – “The upcoming debt limit deadline is beginning to look as risky as the 2011 debt limit showdown that led to Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the US sovereign rating and eventually to budget sequestration, or the 2013 deadline that overlapped with a government shutdown.”

Adding, as SpotGamma said, “over 50% of stocks [had] their largest gamma position” roll-off Friday. This suggests an increased potential for volatility heading into the September 21-22 FOMC event. SqueezeMetrics confirms.

Moreover, for today, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,365.25 low volume area (LVNode) pivot puts in play the $4,393.75 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as high as the $4,425.00 untested point of control (VPOC) and $4,481.75 HVNode, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,365.25 LVNode puts in play the $4,341.00 VPOC. Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as low as $4,309.75 (the intersection of a minimal excess overnight low and poor structure in a prior day session), or lower.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 7:15 AM ET.

Definitions

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

News And Analysis

Analyzing the nightmare scenario for China’s economy.

FOMC preview: How to make tapering data-dependent.

China’s property fear is spreading beyond Evergrande.

Goldman Sachs: Low-rate world favors quality growth.

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky to herald a travel revolution.

Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is safe and protective for kids.

Risks associated with rising government debt, inflation.

The global housing market is broken dividing countries.

Trudeau set for slimmer victory than hoped in election.

Yellen renews call to up debt limit to avoid catastrophe.

Solana blackout reveals the fragility of cryptocurrency.

FX Weekly: There’s a Lehman in China every 3 years.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Weekly Brief For September 19, 2021

Editor’s Note: Late today. So sorry! The main takeaway is that we’re in a window of volatility and participants should focus on leveraging rich skew and complex spreads to hedge or speculate on sideways to lower trade.

Market Commentary

  • SPX below balance, 50-day SMA.
  • Ahead is a 2-day FOMC meeting.
  • Concerns around the debt ceiling.
  • Rich skew makes hedging easier.
  • Post OPEX volatility likely in play.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower, last week, into Friday’s quadruple witching derivatives expiry. 

Of interest this week is a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Graphic updated 5:30 PM ET Sunday. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: During the prior week’s trade, on weak breadth, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by a balance-area breakout and separation of value below the S&P 500’s 50-day simple moving average (i.e., a visual level likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants who generally are unable to defend retests).

Balance-Break Scenarios: A change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend) has occurred.

We now monitor for rejection (i.e., return inside of balance) which portends a move to the opposite end of the balance.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of a waning economic recovery, heightened valuations in the face of strong EPS expectations, the prospects of stimulus reduction, non-seasonally aligned flows, impactful options and equity market dynamics, divergent sentiment, as well as fears of a mid-cycle transition.

In a Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) note posted by The Market Ear, analysts “believe it is a critical period for many investors and companies that manage performance to calendar year-end. Such pressures boost volumes and volatility as investors observe earnings reports, analyst days and managements’ guidance for the following year.”

At the same time, inflows into equities are exploding to the upside as JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) technicians “do not see a pattern on the [S&P 500] chart or any cross-market dynamics that would suggest the market is set for a lasting bearish reversal. The late-Aug systematic sell signals lose statistical significance into next week and the seasonal trends improve into early-Oct.”

Graphic: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) charts equity flows, via The Market Ear.

That said, we hone in on risks.

If concerns like the debt ceiling are not resolved, some economists argue, according to Bloomberg, “that an announcement on tapering is likely to be delayed to December, and that Treasury yields could fall further as a result.”

We note that – as Goldman Sachs writes – “The upcoming debt limit deadline is beginning to look as risky as the 2011 debt limit showdown that led to Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the US sovereign rating and eventually to budget sequestration, or the 2013 deadline that overlapped with a government shutdown.”

On the other hand, according to SqueezeMetrics, “the current combination of weak put flows and large customer vanna exposure” is fragile; “people are [still] overexposed to changes in VIX, and will be hurt more than usual if VIX starts moving up. Historically, this means SPX down, VIX up.”

Following SqueezeMetrics’ remarks, SpotGamma adds that “over 50% of stocks [had] their largest gamma position” roll-off Friday. This suggests an increased potential for volatility heading into the September 21-22 FOMC event.

In this post-quad-witching window of non-strength, we may, as a result, use the rich skew to hedge (see below Weekly Trade Idea section).

Moreover, for today, given an increased potential for heightened volatility and initiative trade, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,437.75 micro-composite point of control (MCPOC) puts in play the $4,481.75 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the $4,481.75 HVNode could reach as high as the $4,510.00 low volume area (LVNode) and $4,526.25 HVNode, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,437.75 MCPOC puts in play the $4,393.75 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $4,393.75 HVNode could reach as low as the $4,365.25 LVNode and $4,341.00 untested point of control (VPOC), or lower.

We note that the $4,481.75 and $4,393.75 HVNodes intersect key anchored volume-weighted average price levels. These are metrics highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.

Graphic: 4-hour profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 5:30 PM ET Sunday.

Key Definitions

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

MCPOCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous day sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Weekly Trade Idea

Please Note: In no way is the below a trade recommendation. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Options offer an efficient way to gain directional exposure. 

If an option buyer was short (long) stock, he or she could buy a call (put) to hedge upside (downside) exposure. Additionally, one can spread, or buy (+) and sell (-) options together, strategically.

Commonly discussed spreads include credit, debit, ratio, back, and calendar.

  • Credit: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +1 option farther out of the money.
  • Debit: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -1 option farther out of the money.
  • Ratio: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -2 options farther out of the money. 
  • Back: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +2 options farther out of the money.
  • Calendar: Sell -1 option. Buy +1 option farther out in time, at the same strike.

Typically, if bullish (bearish), sell at-the-money put (call) credit spread and/or buy a call (put) debit/ratio spread structured around target price. Alternatively, if the expected directional move is great (small), opt for a back spread (calendar spread). Also, if credit spread, capture 50-75% of the premium collected. If debit spread, capture 2-300% of the premium paid.

Be cognizant of risk exposure to direction (delta), time (theta), and volatility (vega). 

  • Negative (positive) delta = synthetic short (long). 
  • Negative (positive) theta = time decay hurts (helps).
  • Negative (positive) vega = volatility hurts (helps).

Trade Idea: SELL -1 1/2 BACKRATIO SPX 100 (Weeklys) 29 SEP 21 4400/4300 PUT @.65 CREDIT LMT

I’m neutral to bearish on the S&P 500 and I think the index may slide toward $4,300. I will structure a spread below the current index price, expiring in about 2 weeks. I will buy the 4400 put option once (+1) and sell the 4300 put option twice (-2) for a $0.65 credit. Should the index not move to my target, I keep the $65 credit. Should it move to $4,300, I could make $10,065.00 at expiry. Should the index move past $4,200.00 or so, I may incur unlimited losses. My goal, with this spread, is to capture the initial credit and close for additional credit if the index moves lower. 

If necessary, I will hedge the position by either (A) selling futures, (B) widening strikes, (C) buying a far out-of-the-money put option to cap downside in case of an unpredictable move lower, or (D) roll strikes down in price and out in time.

News And Analysis

An essay on why you keep losing money as a trader.

August retail sales reflect strong consumer demand.

UBS: Resist temptation to time market despite highs.

U.S. debt ceiling fight could cause markets to tumble.

Nasdaq on whether Rule 605 works better in dollars.

Rally driven less by reflation prospects; TINA to stock.

Higher U.S. CGT proposal spurs a PE and M&A rush.

If a CEO talks like Kant, think twice before investing.

New vehicle prices surge amid global chip shortages.

Active managers’ performance disappointing in 2021.

DeFi is disrupting but not derailing traditional finance.

OpenSea admitted recent incident as insider trading.

SEC looks to greater oversight of the crypto markets.

Central bank digital currency; cash for the digital age.

White House to put forward three CFTC nominations.

Some key lessons from NYC’s first SALT conference. 

Let’s Hang Out

Salt Lake City, UT September 28-30

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For September 17, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures trade sideways to lower.

  • Fed could hint at a stimulus taper.
  • Ahead: UoM consumer sentiment.
  • OPEX and a potential for volatility.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways to lower ahead of quadruple witching and news the Federal Reserve may hint at scaling back asset purchases next week. 

Ahead is data on University of Michigan consumer sentiment (10:00 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:30 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:30 AM ET, Friday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on weak intraday breadth and strong market liquidity metrics, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade back toward the market’s most recent perception of value, the convergence of the $4,437.75 micro-composite point of control (MCPOC) and an anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

VWAP: A metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.
Graphic: Divergent delta (i.e., committed buying as measured by volume delta or buying and selling power as calculated by the difference in volume traded at the bid and offer) in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), one of the largest ETFs that track the S&P 500 index, via Bookmap. The readings are supportive of responsive trade or balance (i.e., rotational trade that suggests current prices offer favorable entry and exit).

We’re carrying forward the presence of minimal excess at Wednesday’s regular trade low (RTH Low), after a test of a point of control (POC) and 50-day simple moving average (i.e., two visual levels likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants who generally are unable to defend retests).

Balance-Break Scenarios Potentially In Play: A change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend) may occur.

Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area. Rejection (i.e., return inside of balance) portends a move to the opposite end of the balance.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of peak growth and a moderation in the economic recovery, heightened valuations, the prospects of stimulus reduction, as well as non-seasonally aligned flows, impactful options market dynamics, divergent sentiment, and fears of a mid-cycle transition.

Graphic: @pat_hennessy breaks down returns for the S&P 500, categorized by the week relative to OPEX. Based on his analysis, Pat sees that the “2 weeks prior to OPEX (e.g., 7/30/21 to 8/6/21 in this late-cycle) [have] been extremely bullish,” while “OPEX week returns peaked in 2016 and have trended lower since.”

According to SqueezeMetrics, coming into Thursday’s session, the steepness of the GammaVol (GXV) curve suggested there was no more risk to the upside than there was to the downside; “SPX upside needs a bunch of bought puts to throw on the bonfire. It would be bullish for SPX to have people buying SPX puts,” and that hasn’t happened yet.

Thereafter, the index crept back into range, past $4,450.00, before responding higher, into the close ahead of quadruple witching, during which SpotGamma believes participants are likely to “see a big chunk of SPX options expire on the open, and the balance of index/etf/stocks expire on the close. This should lead to a decent amount of volatility Friday and Monday ahead of the FOMC.”

Moreover, for today, given an increased potential for heightened volatility, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,481.75 high volume area (HVNode) puts in play the $4,510.00 low volume area (LVNode). Initiative trade beyond the LVNode could reach as high as the $4,526.25 HVNode and $4,550.00 overnight high (ONH).

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,481.75 HVNode puts in play the $4,437.75 MCPOC. Initiative trade beyond the MCPOC could reach as low as the $4,425.25 minimal excess low and $4,393.75, another micro-composite point of control (MCPOC).

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:30 AM ET.

News And Analysis

Fed seen announcing bond taper in November, rate liftoff in 2023.

Invesco could merge with a State Street asset-management unit.

Food and Drug Administration weighing COVID-19 booster shots.

S&P analysis on Canada growth prospects in the coming decade.

Rising transportation expenses are companies’ big inflation hurdle

Wall Street influencers are making $500,000, above even bankers.

GM plans to idle factories longer amid problematic chip shortages.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For September 16, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures trade sideways to lower with commodities and yields.

  • Equity indices falling; SPX above 50-day.
  • Ahead are claims, retail sales, and more.
  • Positioning risks mount case for volatility.

What Happened: After a break higher, yesterday, U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways to lower overnight as participants positioned themselves for an options expiry and upcoming data dumps.

Ahead is data on jobless claims (8:30 AM ET), retail sales (8:30 AM ET), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (8:30 AM ET), and business inventories (10:00 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:40 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:40 AM ET, Thursday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on strong intraday breadth and middling market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by the S&P 500 closing the session on a spike higher, away from value.

Spike Rules In Play: Spike’s mark the beginning of a break from value. Spikes higher (lower) are validated by trade at or above (below) the spike base (i.e., the origin of the spike). 
Graphic: Divergent delta (i.e., non-committed buying as measured by volume delta or buying and selling power as calculated by the difference in volume traded at the bid and offer) in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), one of the largest ETFs that track the S&P 500 index, via Bookmap. The readings are supportive of responsive trade or balance (i.e., rotational trade that suggests current prices offer favorable entry and exit).

This is significant because of rejection, or a willingness not to transact at lower prices. We’re carrying forward the presence of minimal excess at Wednesday’s regular trade low (RTH Low), after a test of a prior untested point of control (VPOC) and 50-day simple moving average (i.e., two visual levels likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants who generally are unable to defend retests).

Graphic: S&P 500 rotates between the 20- and 50-day simple moving average. Thus far, stronger sellers have not stepped up.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of peak growth and a moderation in the economic recovery, heightened valuations, the prospects of stimulus reduction, as well as non-seasonally aligned inflows, impactful options market dynamics, divergent sentiment, and fears of a mid-cycle transition.

Graphic: @pat_hennessy breaks down returns for the S&P 500, categorized by the week relative to OPEX. Based on his analysis, Pat sees that the “2 weeks prior to OPEX (e.g., 7/30/21 to 8/6/21 in this late-cycle) [have] been extremely bullish,” while “OPEX week returns peaked in 2016 and have trended lower since.”

According to SqueezeMetrics, the steepness of the GammaVol (GXV) curve suggests there is no more risk to the upside than there is to the downside; “SPX upside needs a bunch of bought puts to throw on the bonfire. It would be bullish for SPX to have people buying SPX puts,” and that hasn’t happened yet.

In other words, the graphic “means that movement from 4450 to 4500 is very easy, … [a]nd now that we’re at 4480, it’s slippery back down to 4450.”

Moreover, for today, given an increased potential for heightened volatility and responsive trade, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,481.75 high volume area (HVNode) puts in play the $4,510.00 low volume area (LVNode). Initiative trade beyond the LVNode could reach as high as the $4,526.25 HVNode and $4,550.00 overnight high (ONH).

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,481.75 HVNode puts in play the $4,449.50 spike base. Initiative trade beyond the spike base could reach as low as the $4,425.25 minimal excess low and $4,393.75 micro-composite point of control (MCPOC).

To note, the $4,481.75 HVNode corresponds with two anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) levels, a metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 7:25 AM ET.

News And Analysis

How ‘OpEx’ is shaking up the third week of the month.

U.S. political noise to intensify but have limited impact.

Though COVID cases are falling, the deaths are rising.

Biden’s economic plan at risk of delays amid squabble.

China Evergrande onshore bond trading is suspended.

The Coinbase spat with SEC ups ante in a crypto fight.

The foreclosure rate at its lowest in over two decades.

Talking Options Greeks: Everything you need to know.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Weekly Brief For September 12, 2021

Editor’s Note: Keeping it light today; the main takeaway is that we’re in a window of volatility and participants should maintain a cautiously bullish stance, for the time being. Skew makes it so we can hedge for little-to-no cost using complex spreads (more on this below).

Please note that levels in the below graphics should only be relied upon as rough areas of resistance and support due to the December contract roll. Updated levels to come later this week, after daily commentaries resume Thursday, September 16.

Thank you and take care!

Market Commentary

Equity index futures trade lower, last week, resolving a multi-week consolidation area.

  • Narratives around slower recovery rising.
  • Equity indices falling; SPX above 50-day.
  • Positioning risks mount case for volatility.
  • A couple trade ideas for the week ahead.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures resolved lower, last week, alongside the evolution of some important dynamics with respect to the pace of the pandemic recovery and trend growth, non-seasonally aligned flows and positioning risks, as well as divergent sentiment. 

Of interest this week is data on the consumer price index, industrial production, retail sales, and some Fed manufacturing surveys. 

Graphic updated 12:00 PM ET Saturday. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: During the prior week’s regular trade, on weak intraday breadth and mostly divergent market liquidity metrics, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade below a key micro-composite high volume area (HVNode). 

This activity resolved a multi-week consolidation area (ie., balance). 

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot a change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend). 

Modus operandi is responsive trade (i.e., fade the edges), rather than initiative trade (i.e., play the break).

To note, initially, participants had a tough time separating value and expanding range lower. 

This was evidenced by the minimal excess at Wednesday’s regular trade low (RTH Low), coupled with Thursday’s overnight response at the 20-day simple moving average (i.e., a visual level likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants who generally are unable to defend retests). 

Graphic: S&P 500 loses the 20-day simple moving average. A loss of that level officially changes the tone; “We maintain a cautiously bullish stance.”

Given that action – the difficulty participants had in moving prices out and away from balance – the path of least resistance was not down; stronger sellers were not yet on board, I explained

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

Value-Area Placement: Perception of value unchanged if value overlapping (i.e., inside day). Perception of value has changed if value not overlapping (i.e., outside day). Delay trade in the former case.
Graphic: 30-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures and market liquidity, via Bookmap, for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) coming into Thursday’s regular trade. Notice the cumulative volume delta (CVD) or buying and selling power as calculated by the difference in volume traded at the bid and offer. So, coming into Friday’s trade, stronger sellers were likely not yet on board.

The tone changed Friday when selling intensified; the 20-day simple moving average was lost and the S&P 500 closed the session on a spike lower, away from value.

Spike Rules In Play: Spike’s mark the beginning of a break from value. Spikes higher (lower) are validated by trade at or above (below) the spike base (i.e., the origin of the spike). 

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of peak growth and a moderation in the economic recovery, heightened valuations, the prospects of stimulus reduction, as well as non-seasonally aligned inflows, impactful options market dynamics, divergent sentiment, and fears of a mid-cycle transition.

The implications of these themes on price are contradictory

To elaborate, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C), and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) cautioned investors about equity outlooks. Of concern, in particular, is a rise in cases of the delta variant, tensions between inflation expectations and yields, as well as seasonality. 

Among other risks, as SpotGamma notes, “markets are fast approaching a window of volatility which could produce some pretty sharp volatility: 9/15 VIX expiration, 9/17 Quarterly OPEX and the 9/22 FOMC. This lineup is particularly interesting as we believe that expiration leads to a pickup in volatility.” Read more on SpotGamma’s perspectives, here

Graphic: @pat_hennessy breaks down returns for the S&P 500, categorized by the week relative to OPEX. Based on his analysis, Pat sees that the “2 weeks prior to OPEX (e.g., 7/30/21 to 8/6/21 in this late-cycle) [have] been extremely bullish,” while “OPEX week returns peaked in 2016 and have trended lower since.”

SqueezeMetrics – which saw “the current combination of weak put flows and large customer vanna exposure” as fragile – echoes the risks of volatility adding “people are overexposed to changes in VIX, and will be hurt more than usual if VIX starts moving up. Historically, this means SPX down, VIX up.”

Moreover, for early trade next week, given an increased potential for heightened volatility and Friday’s end-of-day spike from value, participants may make use of the following framework.

If participants manage to find acceptance (i.e., spend multiple hours of trade) above the $4,467.00 spike base, then the odds of downside follow-through are lower. We’d look to maintain a cautiously bullish stance.

On the other hand, should participants have trouble maintaining prices above the $4,467.00 spike base, then the focus ought to be on big-picture risk management levels like the August 19, 2021 swing low and 50-day simple moving average.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 12:00 PM ET Saturday. Note that the roll to the December contract occurred on September 9, 2021. Therefore, levels in the above graphic should only be relied upon as rough areas of resistance and support. Updated levels to come Thursday, September 16, 2021.

Weekly Trade Idea

Please Note: In no way is the below a trade recommendation. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Options offer an efficient way to gain directional exposure. 

If an option buyer was short (long) stock, he or she could buy a call (put) to hedge upside (downside) exposure. Additionally, one can spread, or buy (+) and sell (-) options together, strategically.

Commonly discussed spreads include credit, debit, ratio, back, and calendar.

  • Credit: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +1 option farther out of the money.
  • Debit: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -1 option farther out of the money.
  • Ratio: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -2 options farther out of the money. 
  • Back: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +2 options farther out of the money.
  • Calendar: Sell -1 option. Buy +1 option farther out in time, at the same strike.

Typically, if bullish (bearish), sell at-the-money put (call) credit spread and/or buy a call (put) debit/ratio spread structured around target price. Alternatively, if the expected directional move is great (small), opt for a back spread (calendar spread). Also, if credit spread, capture 50-75% of the premium collected. If debit spread, capture 2-300% of the premium paid.

Be cognizant of risk exposure to direction (delta), time (theta), and volatility (vega). 

  • Negative (positive) delta = synthetic short (long). 
  • Negative (positive) theta = time decay hurts (helps).
  • Negative (positive) vega = volatility hurts (helps).

Trade Idea 1: SELL -1 1/2 BACKRATIO SPX 100 (Weeklys) 17 SEP 21 4350/4250 PUT @3.80 LMT

I’m neutral-to-bearish on the S&P 500 and I think the index may travel sideways to lower over the next week, past its key moving averages. I will structure a spread below the current index price, expiring in 1 week. I will buy the 4350 put option once (+1) and sell the 4250 put option twice (-2) for a $3.80 credit. Should the index not move to my target, I keep the $380 credit. Should it move to $4,250.00, past the 50-day simple moving average, I could make $10,380.00 at expiry. Should the index move past $4,150.00 or so, I may incur unlimited losses. My goal, with this spread, is to capture the initial credit and close for additional credit if the index moves lower.

If necessary, I will hedge the position by either (A) selling futures, (B) widening strikes, (C) buying a far out-of-the-money put option to cap downside in case of an unpredictable move lower, or (D) roll strikes down in price and out in time.

Trade Idea 2: SELL -1 1/2 BACKRATIO GOOGL 100 17 SEP 21 2775/2700 PUT @.90 LMT

I’m neutral-to-bearish on Alphabet Inc and I think the stock may travel sideways to lower over the next week, past its key moving averages. I will structure a spread below the current stock price, expiring in 1 week. I will buy the 2775 put option once (+1) and sell the 2700 put option twice (-2) for a $0.90 credit. Should the stock not move to my target, I keep the $90 credit. Should it move to $2,700.00, toward the 50-day simple moving average, I could make $7,500.00 at expiry. Should the stock move past $2,625.00 or so, I may incur unlimited losses. My goal, with this spread, is to capture the initial credit and close for additional credit if the stock moves lower.

If necessary, I will hedge the position by either (A) selling stock, (B) widening strikes, (C) buying a far out-of-the-money put option to cap downside in case of an unpredictable move lower, or (D) roll strikes down in price and out in time.

News And Analysis

Lenders continue to expect falling profits, refinancing demand.

Manchin seeing delay in Congress for vote on Biden’s agenda.

Massive decline in forbearances, down nearly 67% from peak. 

Oil prices continuing to fall as pandemic worries slow demand.

Moody’s: Democrats are at a fork in the road, may not take it.

COVID-19 and China risks won’t pass for years, some project.

Nasdaq talks market infrastructure, the real trends in volumes.

Bonds turning hot; European Central Bank redefines tapering.

What People Are Saying

Let’s Hang Out

Los Angeles, CA September 10-12

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About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For September 7, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures traded sideways to lower, in line with most commodities and bonds. Yields, the dollar, and VIX were higher.

  • Goldman revised down growth forecasts.
  • Ahead: Light calendar to base decisions.
  • Positioning risks mount case for volatility.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures traded sideways to lower coming into this shortened week. 

Ahead is no data of interest.

Graphic updated 6:15 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:15 AM ET, Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during Friday’s regular trade, on lackluster intraday breadth and market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by sideways trade above $4,527.75, a prominent high volume area.

This is significant because sideways to higher trade (i.e., balance) marks acceptance, or a willingness to transact at higher prices after a v-pattern recovery, above the key 50-day simple moving average.

Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket) Is The Status Quo: Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot a change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend). 

Modus operandi is responsive trade (i.e., fade the edges), rather than initiative trade (i.e., play the break).

V-Pattern: A pattern that forms after a market establishes a high, retests some support, and then breaks above said high. In most cases, this pattern portends continuation.
Graphic: S&P 500 maintaining prices above the 50-day simple moving average. This moving average can be looked at as a key dynamic level on any move lower. Losing that particular level likely changes the tone.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of peak growth and a moderation in the economic recovery, as well as non-seasonally aligned inflows, impactful options market dynamics, divergent sentiment, and fears of a mid-cycle transition.

Graphic: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) graphic via The Market Ear. All-time highs in the equity markets alongside all-time high equity allocations.

The implications of these themes on price are contradictory

That’s according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) economists who revised lower their forecast for growth in the U.S. economy citing the COVID-19 delta variant, fading fiscal support, supply chain disruptions, and a switch in demand to services. 

“The hurdle for strong consumption growth going forward appears much higher: the Delta variant is already weighing on Q3 growth, and fading fiscal stimulus and a slower service-sector recovery will both be headwinds in the medium term,” said Goldman Sachs’ Ronnie Walker.

Among other risks include fragility with respect to “the current combination of weak put flows and large customer vanna exposure” which, according to SqueezeMetrics, puts us “a hair’s breadth away from some of the most consistently bearish and volatile behavior in the S&P 500.”

In simpler terms, as SqueezeMetrics summarizes, “[p]eople pretty much stopped buying S&P 500 puts [last] week. At the same time, people are overexposed to changes in VIX, and will be hurt more than usual if VIX starts moving up. Historically, this means SPX down, VIX up.”

I also encourage a read of the Weekly Brief for Saturday, September 4, which covered some market risks ahead.

Given the big picture context (i.e., status quo – higher prices – in the face of volatility risks) participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,527.75 high volume area (HVNode) pivot puts in play the $4,550.00 overnight high (ONH). Initiative trade beyond the ONH could reach as high as the Fibonacci extensions at $4,556.25 and $4,592.25.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,527.75 HVNode puts in play the $4,510.00 regular trade high (RTH High). Initiative trade beyond the RTH High could reach as low as the $4,495.00 and $4,481.75 HVNodes.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:15 AM ET.

News And Analysis

Soros calls BlackRock China investment a tragic mistake.

GM reshuffling production plans as chip shortage persists.

London taking aim at New York with 5-year financial plan.

TP ICAP slams work from home as it hampers risk-taking.

Global growth rebound solidifies while risks broaden away.

Deutsche Telekom grows bet on U.S. with SoftBank deal.

Bitcoin facing big test as El Salvador makes it legal tender.

Facebook admits “trust deficit” as it looks to launch wallet.

Without help for oil producers, net-zero is a distant dream.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.