Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For August 27, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures, commodities, bonds, and the dollar were sideways to higher overnight.

  • Some complacency? Let’s talk it out.
  • Ahead: Misc data and Jackson Hole.
  • Building a base for directional move.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned higher overnight as investors continued to position themselves to better act on new monetary policy information.

Ahead is data on personal income (8:30 AM ET), consumer spending (8:30 AM ET), core PCE (8:30 AM ET), trade in goods (8:30 AM ET), University of Michigan sentiment (10:00 AM ET). Later, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (10:00 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:30 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:30 AM ET, Friday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on weak intraday breadth and divergent market liquidity metrics, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade below the $4,484.25 high volume area (HVNode) pivot. This is significant because S&P 500 printed prices in a pocket of low-volume left behind by strong initiative buying earlier in the week. Given the overnight retracement, the index is back to basing for what may be strong directional resolve.

Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket) Trade Is In Play: Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot a change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend). 

Modus operandi is responsive trade (i.e., fade the edges), rather than initiative trade (i.e., play the break).

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of the important Jackson Hole event and a shift higher in the VIX futures terms structure into and through the August 26-28 event. The implications of these events on price are contradictory; to elaborate, extended positioning – which alone suggests risks are asymmetric – coupled with a pronounced shift in shorter-dated VIX expiries, warns of elevated near-term risks for equity market stability.

Graphic: VIX term structure shifts higher with the biggest move happening at the short end of the curve from The Market Ear.

Moreover, for today, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,481.75 high volume area (HVNode) pivot puts in play the $4,495.00 untested point of control (VPOC). Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as high as the $4,511.50 and $4,556.25 Fibonacci-derived price targets.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,481.75 HVNode pivot likely puts in play the $4,454.25 low volume area (LVNode), a ledge resolved during Monday’s breakout. Initiative trade beyond the LVNode could reach as low as the $4,427.00 VPOC and $4,393.75 micro-composite point of control (MCPOC). 

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Ledges: Flattened area on the profile which suggests responsive participants are in control, or initiative participants lack the confidence to continue the discovery process. The ledge will either hold and force participants to liquidate (cover) their positions, or crack and offer support (resistance).
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:30 AM ET.

News And Analysis

Previous COVID preventing infection better than shot.

Critical battle for support as rates risk pivoting higher.

Tax clash testing unity over President Biden’s agenda.

China planning to ban U.S. IPOs for some tech firms.

Southwest to cut fall flights following a tough summer.

Soviet Union collapse turned Russia into powerhouse.

European speculative-grade defaults may fall to 3.5%.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For July 6, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures sideways in overnight trade.

  • Commodities firm up. Oil is stretched.
  • Ahead: PMI, ISM, employment trends.
  • NDX firmed relative to SPX, RUT, DJI.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures diverged overnight. 

Participants explored higher prices in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 traded weak, within prior range. 

Today, participants will receive PMI, employment trend, and ISM non-manufacturing data. 

Graphic updated 7:05 AM ET.

What To Expect: Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open just inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by initiative activity above the $4,311.50 high volume area (HVNode), up to $4,337.75, a Fibonacci-derived price target. 

Initiative Buying: Buying within or above the previous day’s value area.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Sideways trade overnight comes after a rapid move higher on narrowing breadth and tapering volumes. 

Graphic: Breadth metrics from JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), via The Market Ear.

With that, strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) suggest stretched sentiment, positioning, and technical conditions have normalized with economic activity projected to stay significantly above trend. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) takes a bit of a less optimistic view; “Expectations of higher interest rates and higher corporate tax rates by year-end are the primary reasons we forecast that the S&P 500 will trade sideways during the next six months,” said David Kostin, chief US equity strategist for Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s year-end price target for the S&P 500 sits at $4,300.00, a tad lower than where the index is today. To note, however, earnings estimates, the inventory positioning of participants, as well as early July seasonality metrics support the strong near-term performance.

Graphic: Earnings estimates from Jefferies, via The Market Ear

Given that big picture context, for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,323.00 Point of Control (POC) puts in play the developing ledge at $4,348.25, an overnight high (ONH). Initiative trade beyond the ONH could reach as high as the $4,357.50 Fibonacci-derived price target.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Ledges: Flattened area on the profile which suggests responsive participants are in control, or initiative participants lack the confidence to continue the discovery process. The ledge will either hold and force participants to liquidate (cover) their positions, or crack and offer support (resistance).

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below $4,323.00 puts in play the $4,299.00 POC. Initiative trade beyond the POC could reach as low as the $4,285.00 micro-composite POC and $4,263.25 low volume area (LVNode). 

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: SHIFT search suggests participants were committing the most capital to call strikes at and below current prices in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (INDEX: NDX), last week. This activity may denote (1) stock replacement, (2) hedges for underlying short positions, or (3) speculation on the upside. Also, there was a meaningful bid in longer-dated puts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. This dynamic suggests participants, despite their commitment to higher prices, are hedging against near-term risks, like the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

News And Analysis

Economy | Credit Conditions Q3 2021 – Reopening, Reflation, Reset. (S&P)

Markets | Stocks surge, comfort grows as the market fear gauge falls. (S&P)

Energy | Three scenarios for OPEC+, and the likely ones are bearish. (REU)

Markets | Chinese ride-hailing app Didi forced off of app stores in China. (REU)

COVID | Pfizer vaccine less effective against Delta variant, study finds. (FT)

Politics | Biden declares success in beating pandemic in July 4 speech. (BBG)

Politics | Global corporate tax overhaul faces rocky road to completion. (REU)

Markets | June jobs report was exactly what the markets wanted to get. (Axios)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

FinTech | Mortgage-focused startup Blend seeks $4B valuation in IPO. (REU)

FinTech | Turkish broker takes shot at financial titans with product focus. (BZ)

Economy | MMT economist on why China should boost fiscal spending. (BBG)

FinTech | Booking.com announces creation of new internal fintech unit. (Finextra)

M&A | JPMorgan’s big buying spree is Jamie Dimon’s busiest in years. (FT)

FinTech | Fidelity and BlackRock lead fintech startup’s $600M funding. (BBG)

Crypto | BIS finds that crypto investment doesn’t require special policy. (Block)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Results

Case Study: Trading A Balance-Breakout Failure In The Nasdaq 100

What Happened: On April 29, 2021, market participants attempted to move the Nasdaq 100 stock index from balance, an area of recent price acceptance, above a developing ledge, or flattened area on the composite volume profile.

Further, participants failed to find acceptance beyond the balance area, given the Nasdaq 100’s move back into the prior range. As a result, odds favored (1) sideways or (2) lower trade, as low as the balance area low (BAL) near $13,700.00.

Adding, a weak reaction by heavily-weighted index constituents to blowout earnings, as well as poor structure left behind prior price discovery, among other factors, such as the will to raise the Capital Gains Tax, suggested an increased potential to trade below the $13,700.00 BAL, into prior poor structures, or low volume areas (LVNodes), that ought to offer little-to-no support.

In response, the following sequence analysis unpacks how Physik Invest traded options tied to both the cash-settled Nasdaq 100 (INDEX: NDX) and Nasdaq 100 (CME: /NQ) future, leading up to the May 12, 2021 swing low. 

Note: Click here to view all transactions.

Sequence 1: On April 29, 2021, Physik Invest applied the balance-break and gap scenarios, monitoring for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside the balance area. 

To preface, gaps ought to fill quickly. 

Should they not, that’s a signal of weakness; leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator. 

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction.

After a confirmed balance-breakout failure, Physik Invest bought the following structures for a $203.00 debit. At this point, if all legs were to remain out of the money (i.e., expire worthless) by May 21, 2021, the maximum loss would have been $203.00, approximately 1/5 of a standard risk unit, or the debit risked in a typical position.

  • 13500+1/13300-2/13100+1 NDX long put ratio spread
  • 14100+3/14110-6/14140+3 NDX short call ratio spread
  • 14400-1 /NQ short call

By 5/10/2021, the aforementioned position was closed for a $1,855.00 credit, an 813.80% return on the initial debit outlay.

The above put-side structure was initiated against the $13,300 high volume area, also a prior balance area boundary. The reason being, a structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Summary: After a failed balance-breakout setup presented itself, Physik Invest financed long put-side structures targeting a test of $13,300, with short-call exposure, risking ⅕ of a standard risk unit in debit, over a timeframe of one month.

In total, the sequence of trades net a $1,621.71 profit after commissions and fees.

The above strategies were employed in accordance with Physik Invest’s core edge: the trade of ratioed, multi-leg strategies that combine short and long positions to reduce risk and increase returns.

Yes, in hindsight, one could have opted for static short exposure (e.g., selling stock to open a position). However, the risks tied to such strategies are immense in a regime characterized by increased volatility and uncertainty.

By leveraging the dynamics of time and volatility, through complex spreads, unwanted directional risks were reduced.

Reflection: Hindsight is 20/20.

Though the entry was perfectly timed, the exit was not; 1-day prior to expiry, the 13500/13300/13100 ratio spread – which was removed for a $21.11 credit – priced at nearly $90.00. 

The correct move would have been to initiate the position with up to four 13500/13300/13100 ratio spreads. Thereafter, as prices moved lower, the position would have been pared down enough to at least cover the cost of any remaining spreads.

Those remaining spreads would have been kept on as so-called “lottery tickets.”

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For May 19, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures in price discovery.

  • Light calendar – Fed speak, minutes.
  • Indices lower. Potential for response.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower, overnight, alongside fears of inflation and a COVID-19 resurgence in some parts of the world.

Today’s calendar is rather light. Of interest is Fed-speak, ahead of the publication of April minutes.

Graphic updated 7:05 AM EST.

What To Expect: Wednesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior -range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity. 

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, after failing at the $4,177.25 developing ledge, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by initiative trade below the $4,129.25 high volume area (HVNode), on an end-of-day spike.

Ledges: Flattened area on the profile which suggests responsive participants are in control, or initiative participants lack the confidence to continue the discovery process. The ledge will either hold and force participants to liquidate (cover) their positions, or crack and offer support (resistance).

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Spikes: Spike’s mark the beginning of a break from value. Spikes higher (lower) are validated by trade at or above (below) the spike base (i.e., the origin of the spike).

For today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,069.25 HVNode has the potential to trade up into the $4,122.25 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $4,122.25 HVNode could reach as high as the $4,134.00 spike base, a major pivot (i.e., above = bullish, below = neutral-to-bearish) for today’s trade.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,069.25 HVNode targets the LVNode boundary at $4,050.75. Auctioning past that boundary puts in play the poor structure at $4,015.00 and $4,001.00. Ultimately, in case of lower prices, participants would look for responsive buying to appear at and below the $3,970.75 price projection.

Graphic: 4-hour profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: SHIFT search suggests participants were most interested in longer-dated put strikes at and below current prices in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX) and Nasdaq 100 Index (INDEX: NDX), May 18.

News And Analysis

Markets | Bitcoin plunges to $38,000 as Elon Musk-fueled rally collapses. (BBG)

Markets | The U.S. dollar is not crashing no matter what the banks say. (BBG)

Recovery | Fully vaccinated people could need a yearly COVID booster shot. (CNBC)

Economy | Yellen pushes higher taxes, stronger unions to the U.S. chamber. (CNBC)

Economy | U.K. inflation more than doubles as post-lockdown climb begins. (REU)

Economy | Biden tax proposal will most likely have a limited effect on ratings. (S&P)

Economy | European Union plans to open borders to vaccinated travelers. (Axios)

Energy | U.S. shale firms are limiting their outputs despite rising prices. (BBG)

Markets | High yield default rate is at its lowest rate since October 2019. (Forbes)

Economy | Construction starts pulled back in April due to supply problems. (MND)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Markets | Biggest risk in markets has shifted; concerns over Fed inaction. (BBG)

FinTech | Global trading platform Stake adds $30M from Tiger, DST Global. (BZ)

FinTech | Secfi secures investment for its stock option financing platform. (BZ)

Energy | Paper company wants to make a wooden rival to car batteries. (BBG)

Trading | Fidelity’s pitch to America’s teens: no-fee brokerage accounts. (WSJ)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For May 18, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures attempting to exit balance.

  • Potential deal on infrastructure package.
  • Ahead: Housing starts, building permits.
  • Indices balance, move up-and-sideways.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned higher overnight after an attempt to probe lower, yesterday, was countered by strong responsive buying.

Graphic updated at 7:20 AM EST.

What To Expect: Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open on a minor gap, inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator. Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by sideways trade just under the $4,177.25 high volume area (HVNode), which is significant because that level marks a major pivot on the composite profile (i.e., above = bullish, below = bearish-to-neutral).

To note, however, despite bullish dynamics ahead of this week’s monthly options expiration (OPEX), participants are unable to gather the conviction and breakthrough to higher prices. This evidenced by a developing ledge at the $4,177.25 HVNode pivot. 

Options Expiration (OPEX): Option expiries mark an end to pinning (i.e, the theory that market makers and institutions short options move stocks to the point where the greatest dollar value of contracts will expire worthless) and the reduction dealer gamma exposure.

Ledges: Flattened area on the profile which suggests responsive participants are in control, or initiative participants lack the confidence to continue the discovery process. The ledge will either hold and force participants to liquidate (cover) their positions, or crack and offer support (resistance).

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high-volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high-volume for favorable entry or exit.

Moreover, for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; like yesterday, activity above the $4,177.25 HVNode pivot may reach as high as the $4,227.00 POC. Initiative trade beyond the POC targets the $4,238.00 overnight high (ONH).

POCs: POCs (like HVNodes described above) are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below $4,177.25 has the potential to reach down, through the $4,129.25 and $4,069.25 HVNodes, to the $4,050.75 low volume area (LVNode).

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures
Graphic: Daily candlestick charts of the S&P 500 (top left), Nasdaq 100 (top right), Russell 2000 (bottom left), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (bottom right). Note that the SPX, RUT, and DJI are about to break out of their most recent downtrends. Monitor for continuation. 
Graphic: SHIFT search suggests participants were most interested in put strikes at and below current prices in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX) and Nasdaq 100 Index (INDEX: NDX), May 17.

News And Analysis

Markets | Burry of ‘Big Short’ fame reveals a $530 million Tesla bet. (REU)

Energy | Brent crude hits $70 as traders bet on sustained demand. (FT)

Technology | Biden pitching $174B electric vehicle plan in Michigan. (REU)

Economy | Yellen wants businesses to help foot infrastructure bills. (Axios)

Recovery | Several states report zero COVID deaths for the first time. (Axios)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Venture | Growth firms, as most active investors, look to double down. (CB)

Energy | Energy groups must stop new oil, gas projects, IEA said. (FT)

Markets | Small Exchange lowers barrier to energy with new futures. (BZ)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For May 4, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures attempt to exit balance.

  • Global reopening, vaccinations rising.
  • Ahead: Vehicle Sales, Factory orders.
  • Markets balance, position for resolve.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures rejected a breakout attempt and explored lower prices, overnight.

Ahead are earnings, data on trade, factory orders, durable goods, and Fed speak.

Graphic updated 7:30 AM ET.

What To Expect: Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior -range and -value, suggesting the potential for directional opportunity. 

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade below the $4,186.75 balance boundary, which is significant because it denoted a clear, visual break-out point.

Adding to our narrative, according to Joseph Fahmy, Investment Advisory Representative at Zor Capital, from here on out, either (1) growth stocks stabilize and move higher, or (2) weak breadth pulls down the overall market. 

Supporting this belief is a weak reaction to earnings, interest rate volatility, tax selling, as well as stretched sentiment.

Still, the market is in a technically bullish position. A break below the S&P 500’s minimal excess low at $4,110.50 would suggest a change in conditions and the potential for lower.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

Moreover, for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; crossing back into the prior day’s trading range, marked by the $4,181.00 regular-trade low (RTH Low), targets the $4,189.00 POC. Initiative trade beyond the POC could reach as high as the $4,194.25 low volume area (LVNode), and then the $4,205 POC. 

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Initiative Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) within or above the previous day’s value area.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below $4,167.25 could reach as low as the $4,153.25 and $4,137.25 high volume areas (HVNodes).

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: Physik Invest maps out the purchase of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), for May 3. Activity in the options market was primarily concentrated in short-dated tenors, in strikes as low as $413.00, which corresponds with $4,130.00 in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX).

News And Analysis

Politics | Biden open to options on spending as Congress takes over. (BBG)

Economy | Near-term volatility in inflation as economic restart progresses. (BLK)

Markets | Robinhood raked in $331 million from clients’ trading activity. (CNBC)

Economy | Metrics show strong U.S. business sentiment hit a snag in April. (Axios)

Economy | Treasury quadruples borrowing estimates to pay for stimulus. (BBG)

Trade | Truckers expect the U.S. transport capacity crunch to persist. (WSJ)

Banking | Cash-rich U.S. banks moving to reduce corporate deposits. (FT)

Commodities | Broad commodities price boom amplifies ‘supercycle’ talk. (FT)

Economy | Yellen to appoint Senior Fed official to run top bank regulator. (WSJ)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Media | Why Verizon sold AOL and Yahoo for 1% of their peak valuation. (Axios)

FinTech | Mastercard adds 6 startups to Start Path accelerator program. (CT)

FinTech | Canada-based Wealthsimple raises $610M at a $4B valuation. (TC)

FinTech | Founder at Miami-based accelerator talks exits, #MiamiTech. (BZ)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, Canadian businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity. 

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For May 3, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures in balance.

  • Global markets quiet on holiday.
  • Ahead: Fed speak, employment.
  • Potential for directional resolve.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned higher overnight. The S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are relatively strong compared to the Nasdaq 100.

Aside from earnings, key events this week include a manufacturing data release, as well as talks by Fed Chair Powell, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, and Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester. The Bank of England and Bank of Australia will provide clarity on their monetary policies. Employment data will come Friday. 

Graphic updated 7:20 AM EST.

What To Expect: Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting the potential for immediate directional opportunity. 

Balance-Break + Gap Scenarios: Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area. This can come in the form of sideways trade or range expansion.

Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Adding, during Friday’s regular trade, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by sideways trade above $4,168.00, which is significant because it marked a prior session’s regular-trade low (RTH Low).

This attempt to move from balance comes after weeks of mechanical trade in the range between $4,186.75 and $4,110.50. It is likely that, given last week’s heavy economic and earnings calendar, participants have more information to initiate a directional move. 

For today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above $4,197.25 low-volume area (LVNode) targets the $4,205.00 VPOC. Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as high as the $4,210.75 regular-trade high (RTH High), and then, the Fibonacci cluster between $4,222.50-4,237.50. 

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high-volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high-volume for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs (like HVNodes described above) are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,186.75 balance-area boundary targets the $4,167.25 RTH Low. Thereafter, if lower, participants should look for responses at the $4,132.00 value-area low (VAL) and the $4,110.50 minimal excess low.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

News And Analysis

Travel | EU pushes end to travel restrictions for vaccinated tourists. (BBG)

Markets | Ether hits $3,000 as Bitcoin’s crypto dominance declines. (BBG)

Economy | Warren Buffett sees inflation, even if Jerome Powell doesn’t. (Axios)

Markets | Demand surges for New York Fed’s reverse repo facility. (KFGO)

Markets | Abel is likely successor at Berkshire Buffett tells CNBC. (BBG)

Markets | Robinhood’s core business more than tripled in first quarter. (BBG)

Trade | Intel CEO says chip shortage will persist for couple years. (BBG)

Recovery | COVID-19 cases fall sharply in U.S., vaccinations rise. (CNBC)

Economy | Bank of Canada tapers asset purchases, while others wait. (Moody’s)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Trading | London Metals Exchange to announce open outcry decision. (REU)

FinTech | Fintech groups form as industry scrutiny ramps on Capitol Hill. (S&P)

FinTech | Robinhood deepens ties with JPM by using bank for transfers. (CNBC)

FinTech | Digital Dollar Project to launch five U.S. central bank cryptos. (REU)

Travel | Airport security app Clear looks to score with vaccine passport. (REU)

FinTech | TradeTech INX estimates $125M raised in token, equity offer. (REU)

 About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, Canadian businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity. 

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For April 30, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures in balance.

  • Fundamentals great, risks nearing.
  • Earnings, FOMC pass. What now?
  • May see chop or responsive trade.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower overnight after a string of positive fundamental developments.

Graphic updated 6:20 AM EST.

What To Expect: Friday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity. 

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by initiative trade below the $4,186.75 ledge (also the balance-area high, or BAH). This is significant because it suggests participants did not have the conviction to explore higher prices beyond balance (a dynamic that’s caused by participants searching for more information to base their next move). 

Ledges: Flattened area on the profile which suggests responsive participants are in control, or initiative participants lack the confidence to continue the discovery process. The ledge will either hold and force participants to liquidate (cover) their positions, or crack and offer support (resistance).

Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot a change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend).

As stated in yesterday’s balance-break and gap scenarios, acceptance was key in confirming the higher prices discovered during Thursday’s pre-market trade. Participants failed to find acceptance given the S&P 500’s move into the prior range. As a result, odds favor (1) sideways or (2) lower trade, as low as the balance-area low (BAL) $4,110.50 (a minimal excess low, also). 

All of these nuances — while prices are near all-time highs — are happening in the context of optimistic comments from policy leadership and blow-out earnings.

“All evidence still points to continued support from both fiscal and monetary policy against a backdrop of accelerating corporate earnings,” said Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer. “This reinforces our view that markets can advance further, with cyclical parts of the market — such as financials, energy, and value stocks — likely to benefit most from the global upswing.”

To put it simply, one could say that the equity market is priced to perfection at this stage of the recovery.

For today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,186.75 ledge targets the $4,210.75 minimal-excess high. Initiative trade beyond $4,210.75 could reach as high as $4,228.00 and $4,263.00. In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,168.00 RTH low targets the $4,164.25 high-volume area (HVNode). Thereafter, if lower, participants could see a test of the opposing end of the balance, or the $4,110.50 minimal excess low.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.
Graphic: S&P 500 Index (top left), Nasdaq 100 (top right), Russell 2000 (bottom left), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (bottom right). Updated 9:30 PM EST.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Updated 9:30 PM EST.
Graphic: Physik Invest maps out the purchase of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), for April 29. Activity in the options market was primarily concentrated in short-dated tenors, in strikes as low as $400.00, which corresponds with $4,200.00 in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX).
Graphic: Noting a move lower in the % of S&P 500 companies trading above their 100-day simple moving average.

News And Analysis

Economy | U.S. recovery gains steam as spending fuels 6.4% GDP growth. (BBG)

Commodities | Surging U.S. crop prices reversing fortunes in rural Iowa. (REU)

Commodities | Cobalt price jump underscores reliance on metal for EV batteries. (FT)

Trade | Why Apple has chips for iPhones while Ford got caught short. (REU)

Markets | Fundamentals support lower volatility, tight corporate bond spreads. (Moody’s)

Economy | China’s factory activity growth slows on supply bottlenecks, demand. (REU)

Housing | Pending home sales rise less than expected, inventory remains tight. (MND)

Economy | Sawmills are selling boards faster than they can cut them. (FP)

Trade | Caterpillar flags supply-chain risks as global recovery boost earnings. (REU)

Commodities | Oil dipping after rallying on signs of rising global fuel demand. (BBG)

Economy | Joe Biden says tax hikes on rich will fund cuts for many more. (BBG)

Economy | How a bout of mild inflation could knock decarbonization plans. (FP)

Economy | The recovery accelerates amid consumer, housing, industrial gains. (S&P)

Markets | Lockdowns worsen India’s fiscal woes fueled by weak auctions. (BBG)

Recovery | COVID-19 surge in Oregon shows fight against virus not over. (BBG)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Events | Discover tomorrow’s solutions to today’s challenges in fintech. (Finovate)

Trading | Nasdaq does a deep dive into dark, off-exchange trading. (NDAQ)

 About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, Canadian businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

 Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For April 29, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures in price discovery mode.

  • Market up on earnings, Fed support.
  • Ahead: Earnings and GDP forecasts.
  • Futures out of balance, off new highs.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned higher overnight after President Joe Biden’s joint session of Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s assessment of the economy, and blowout earnings by heavily weighted index constituents. 

Graphic updated at 8:20 AM ET.

What To Expect: Thursday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) will likely open on a gap, outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting the potential for directional opportunity.

Balance-Break + Gap Scenarios: Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area. 

Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator. 

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Adding, overnight, Wednesday’s best-case outcome occurred, evidence by initiative trade beyond the S&P 500’s $4,186.75 ledge. Thus far, the index has taken out all major upside references.

Initiative Buying: Buying within or above the previous day’s value area.

Ledges: Flattened area on the profile which suggests responsive participants are in control, or initiative participants lack the confidence to continue the discovery process. The ledge will either hold and force participants to liquidate (cover) their positions, or crack and offer support (resistance).

Initiative Buying: Buying within or above the previous day’s value area.

To note, the Fed strengthened its assessment of the economy and reaffirmed the need for aggressive support. 

Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management states: “With no meaningful change to monetary policy or communication, this meeting was simply a message to market participants to sit back and observe as the economic recovery continues to unfold.”

“For now, the Fed is maintaining a tight grip on the bond market, but it appears like a discussion on tapering bond purchases is right around the corner.”

Moving on, for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity between the $4,203.25 Fibonacci-derived price extension and $4,186.75 ledge calls for balance or responsive trade. Initiative trade beyond the $4,203.25 price extension could reach as high as $4,228.00 and $4,263.00. 

Responsive Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) in response to prices below (above) area of recent price acceptance.

Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend).

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,186.75 ledge targets the $4,181.00 POC. 

POCs: POCs (like HVNodes described above) are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Thereafter, if lower, participants should look for a rotation to the other balance, or $4,110.50. 

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: Physik Invest maps out the purchase of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), for April 28. Impactful activity in the options market was primarily concentrated on the call side, in short-dated tenors, in strikes as high as $425.00, which corresponds with $4,250.00 in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX).

News And Analysis

Economy | Mortgage application volume falls despite lower rates. (MND)

Recovery | De Blasio says New York City plans full reopen in July. (Axios)

Economy | EU industry calls for a carbon border tax as prices soar. (FT)

Technology | Chip drought hits Apple, BMW, Ford as crisis worsens. (BBG)

M&A | LSEG, and Euronext completed the Borsa Italiana transaction. (TTN)

Economy | German joblessness unexpectedly rises on virus curb. (BBG)

Markets | Getting harder to argue that price increases are temporary. (BBG)

Commodities | Goldman sees commodities rallying on strong demand. (REU)

Economy | Roads across the world busier than at the start of the year. (BBG)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

FinTech | State Of Fintech Q1 2021 Report: Investment, Sector Trends. (CBI)

MiamiTech | ‘Miami Tech Week’ wasn’t planned. But the hype is infectious. (Wired)

FinTech | Ethereum jumps to high on a report of EIB digital bond issuance. (REU)

 About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, Canadian businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

 Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For April 28, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures balance, trade sideways.

  • Traders honed in on a Fed taper.
  • A heavy day of earnings, FOMC.
  • Expect chop or responsive trade. 

What Happened: Ahead of key economic developments, U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways-to-lower overnight. Yields and the dollar rose.

This activity comes alongside reports of strong earnings from heavily weighted index constituents. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Pinterest (NYSE: PINS) were some of the most anticipated reports.

Today, Joe Biden will unveil his “American Families Plan” in an address to Congress, the Federal Reserve will provide clarity on its monetary easing plan, and Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), among others, will report their earnings.

Graphic updated at 8:20 AM EST.

What To Expect: Wednesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity. 

Adding, over the past few sessions, volumes have dwindled and responsive trade has been the course of action. This is in anticipation of impactful fundamental developments, like the FOMC meeting, today.

Responsive Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) in response to prices below (above) area of recent price acceptance.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) expects the Fed to keep rate hikes off the table until mid-2023. Given that labor slack remains high, the odds of tapering are rather slim.
Graphic: Goldman Sachs’ timeline for Federal Reserve tapering, via ForexLive.

That said, today’s trade will likely be volatile and participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,186.75 ledge targets the $4,191.75 overnight high (ONH). Initiative trade beyond the ONH may introduce excess and could reach as high as the Fibonacci-derived price targets, $4,197.25-$4,263.00. 

Ledges: Flattened area on the profile which suggests responsive participants are in control, or initiative participants lack the confidence to continue the discovery process. The ledge will either hold and force participants to liquidate (cover) their positions, or crack and offer support (resistance).

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below $4,166.75 regular-trade low (RTH Low) targets the $4,164.25 high-volume area (HVNode). Thereafter, if lower, participants can look for responses at the $4,163.25, $4,137.25, and $4,122.75 HVNodes.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

As long as prices remain within the prior day’s range, responsive trade is the course of action. Participants should approach today’s session with extra caution, given the potential for headline-driven initiative activity. Big picture, though, the bullish narrative remains intact unless the S&P 500 is able to auction and spend time below the $4,110.50 minimal excess low (also the balance-area low). 

Initiative Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) within or above (below) the previous day’s value area.

Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend).
Graphic: 4-hour profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: SHIFT search maps out the trade of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), for April 27. Activity in the options market was primarily concentrated in short-dated tenors, in strikes near current prices. Data suggests participants, in insignificant amounts, added call-side exposure into the beginning of May. Sentiment flips into the end of May, beginning of June. 

News And Analysis

Economy | Biden unveils a massive family aid plan funded by taxing the rich. (BBG)

Economy | Fed to stay patient as U.S. outlook improves: decision-day guide. (BBG)

Commodities | Goldman sees commodities rallying over the next six months. (FP)

Markets | Tesla accused by EPA of auto-coating emissions reporting failure. (BBG)

Markets | Airbus unit has pleaded guilty to corruption over Saudi contracts. (BBG)

Commodities | OPEC+ is sticking to plan to ease oil output cuts from May 1. (REU)

Markets | Local banks, like their giant rivals, are finding loan growth elusive. (BBG)

Markets | Turning tide signals ebbing of liquidity ocean, analysis suggests. (REU)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Markets | Chatting with Cathie Wood, the CEO, and CIO at ARK Invest. (MM)

FinTech | Trader-inspired brokerage Edge Clear launches new platform. (BZ)

FinTech | Barclays taps amount over end-to-end digital banking solutions. (BZ)

Financing | IRR in emerging tech hubs starting to overtake Silicon Valley. (TC)

FinTech | ICE introduces ultra-low-latency wireless services in Europe. (MM)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, Canadian businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.