Tag: Balance-Break

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Commentary

Daily Brief For September 20, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures, commodities, and yields trade lower.

  • Concerns around the debt ceiling.
  • SPX below balance, 50-day SMA.
  • Ahead is a 2-day FOMC meeting.
  • Today we receive NAHB updates.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower alongside commodities and yields as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen seeks to raise or suspend the debt ceiling alongside Evergrande fears.

Ahead is data on the National Association of Home Builders Index (10:00 AM ET).

Graphic updated 7:15 AM ET. Sentiment Risk-Off if expected /ES open is below the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 7:15 AM ET, Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a high potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap Scenarios In Play: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

During the prior week’s trade, on weak breadth, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by a balance-area breakout and separation of value below the S&P 500’s 50-day simple moving average (i.e., a visual level likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants who generally are unable to defend retests).

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of a waning economic recovery, heightened valuations in the face of strong EPS expectations, the prospects of stimulus reduction, non-seasonally aligned flows, impactful options and equity market dynamics, divergent sentiment, as well as fears of a mid-cycle transition.

A key risk, as highlighted by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is the debt ceiling which, if not resolved, some economists argue “that an announcement on tapering is likely to be delayed to December, and that Treasury yields could fall further as a result.”

We note that – as Goldman Sachs writes – “The upcoming debt limit deadline is beginning to look as risky as the 2011 debt limit showdown that led to Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the US sovereign rating and eventually to budget sequestration, or the 2013 deadline that overlapped with a government shutdown.”

Adding, as SpotGamma said, “over 50% of stocks [had] their largest gamma position” roll-off Friday. This suggests an increased potential for volatility heading into the September 21-22 FOMC event. SqueezeMetrics confirms.

Moreover, for today, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,365.25 low volume area (LVNode) pivot puts in play the $4,393.75 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as high as the $4,425.00 untested point of control (VPOC) and $4,481.75 HVNode, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,365.25 LVNode puts in play the $4,341.00 VPOC. Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as low as $4,309.75 (the intersection of a minimal excess overnight low and poor structure in a prior day session), or lower.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 7:15 AM ET.

Definitions

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

News And Analysis

Analyzing the nightmare scenario for China’s economy.

FOMC preview: How to make tapering data-dependent.

China’s property fear is spreading beyond Evergrande.

Goldman Sachs: Low-rate world favors quality growth.

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky to herald a travel revolution.

Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is safe and protective for kids.

Risks associated with rising government debt, inflation.

The global housing market is broken dividing countries.

Trudeau set for slimmer victory than hoped in election.

Yellen renews call to up debt limit to avoid catastrophe.

Solana blackout reveals the fragility of cryptocurrency.

FX Weekly: There’s a Lehman in China every 3 years.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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Commentary

Weekly Brief For September 19, 2021

Editor’s Note: Late today. So sorry! The main takeaway is that we’re in a window of volatility and participants should focus on leveraging rich skew and complex spreads to hedge or speculate on sideways to lower trade.

Market Commentary

  • SPX below balance, 50-day SMA.
  • Ahead is a 2-day FOMC meeting.
  • Concerns around the debt ceiling.
  • Rich skew makes hedging easier.
  • Post OPEX volatility likely in play.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower, last week, into Friday’s quadruple witching derivatives expiry. 

Of interest this week is a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Graphic updated 5:30 PM ET Sunday. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: During the prior week’s trade, on weak breadth, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by a balance-area breakout and separation of value below the S&P 500’s 50-day simple moving average (i.e., a visual level likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants who generally are unable to defend retests).

Balance-Break Scenarios: A change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend) has occurred.

We now monitor for rejection (i.e., return inside of balance) which portends a move to the opposite end of the balance.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of a waning economic recovery, heightened valuations in the face of strong EPS expectations, the prospects of stimulus reduction, non-seasonally aligned flows, impactful options and equity market dynamics, divergent sentiment, as well as fears of a mid-cycle transition.

In a Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) note posted by The Market Ear, analysts “believe it is a critical period for many investors and companies that manage performance to calendar year-end. Such pressures boost volumes and volatility as investors observe earnings reports, analyst days and managements’ guidance for the following year.”

At the same time, inflows into equities are exploding to the upside as JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) technicians “do not see a pattern on the [S&P 500] chart or any cross-market dynamics that would suggest the market is set for a lasting bearish reversal. The late-Aug systematic sell signals lose statistical significance into next week and the seasonal trends improve into early-Oct.”

Graphic: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) charts equity flows, via The Market Ear.

That said, we hone in on risks.

If concerns like the debt ceiling are not resolved, some economists argue, according to Bloomberg, “that an announcement on tapering is likely to be delayed to December, and that Treasury yields could fall further as a result.”

We note that – as Goldman Sachs writes – “The upcoming debt limit deadline is beginning to look as risky as the 2011 debt limit showdown that led to Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the US sovereign rating and eventually to budget sequestration, or the 2013 deadline that overlapped with a government shutdown.”

On the other hand, according to SqueezeMetrics, “the current combination of weak put flows and large customer vanna exposure” is fragile; “people are [still] overexposed to changes in VIX, and will be hurt more than usual if VIX starts moving up. Historically, this means SPX down, VIX up.”

Following SqueezeMetrics’ remarks, SpotGamma adds that “over 50% of stocks [had] their largest gamma position” roll-off Friday. This suggests an increased potential for volatility heading into the September 21-22 FOMC event.

In this post-quad-witching window of non-strength, we may, as a result, use the rich skew to hedge (see below Weekly Trade Idea section).

Moreover, for today, given an increased potential for heightened volatility and initiative trade, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,437.75 micro-composite point of control (MCPOC) puts in play the $4,481.75 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the $4,481.75 HVNode could reach as high as the $4,510.00 low volume area (LVNode) and $4,526.25 HVNode, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,437.75 MCPOC puts in play the $4,393.75 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $4,393.75 HVNode could reach as low as the $4,365.25 LVNode and $4,341.00 untested point of control (VPOC), or lower.

We note that the $4,481.75 and $4,393.75 HVNodes intersect key anchored volume-weighted average price levels. These are metrics highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.

Graphic: 4-hour profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 5:30 PM ET Sunday.

Key Definitions

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

MCPOCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous day sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Weekly Trade Idea

Please Note: In no way is the below a trade recommendation. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Options offer an efficient way to gain directional exposure. 

If an option buyer was short (long) stock, he or she could buy a call (put) to hedge upside (downside) exposure. Additionally, one can spread, or buy (+) and sell (-) options together, strategically.

Commonly discussed spreads include credit, debit, ratio, back, and calendar.

  • Credit: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +1 option farther out of the money.
  • Debit: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -1 option farther out of the money.
  • Ratio: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -2 options farther out of the money. 
  • Back: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +2 options farther out of the money.
  • Calendar: Sell -1 option. Buy +1 option farther out in time, at the same strike.

Typically, if bullish (bearish), sell at-the-money put (call) credit spread and/or buy a call (put) debit/ratio spread structured around target price. Alternatively, if the expected directional move is great (small), opt for a back spread (calendar spread). Also, if credit spread, capture 50-75% of the premium collected. If debit spread, capture 2-300% of the premium paid.

Be cognizant of risk exposure to direction (delta), time (theta), and volatility (vega). 

  • Negative (positive) delta = synthetic short (long). 
  • Negative (positive) theta = time decay hurts (helps).
  • Negative (positive) vega = volatility hurts (helps).

Trade Idea: SELL -1 1/2 BACKRATIO SPX 100 (Weeklys) 29 SEP 21 4400/4300 PUT @.65 CREDIT LMT

I’m neutral to bearish on the S&P 500 and I think the index may slide toward $4,300. I will structure a spread below the current index price, expiring in about 2 weeks. I will buy the 4400 put option once (+1) and sell the 4300 put option twice (-2) for a $0.65 credit. Should the index not move to my target, I keep the $65 credit. Should it move to $4,300, I could make $10,065.00 at expiry. Should the index move past $4,200.00 or so, I may incur unlimited losses. My goal, with this spread, is to capture the initial credit and close for additional credit if the index moves lower. 

If necessary, I will hedge the position by either (A) selling futures, (B) widening strikes, (C) buying a far out-of-the-money put option to cap downside in case of an unpredictable move lower, or (D) roll strikes down in price and out in time.

News And Analysis

An essay on why you keep losing money as a trader.

August retail sales reflect strong consumer demand.

UBS: Resist temptation to time market despite highs.

U.S. debt ceiling fight could cause markets to tumble.

Nasdaq on whether Rule 605 works better in dollars.

Rally driven less by reflation prospects; TINA to stock.

Higher U.S. CGT proposal spurs a PE and M&A rush.

If a CEO talks like Kant, think twice before investing.

New vehicle prices surge amid global chip shortages.

Active managers’ performance disappointing in 2021.

DeFi is disrupting but not derailing traditional finance.

OpenSea admitted recent incident as insider trading.

SEC looks to greater oversight of the crypto markets.

Central bank digital currency; cash for the digital age.

White House to put forward three CFTC nominations.

Some key lessons from NYC’s first SALT conference. 

Let’s Hang Out

Salt Lake City, UT September 28-30

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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Commentary

Daily Brief For September 9, 2021

Editor’s Note: Daily market commentaries to pause until Thursday, September 16, 2021, due to travel commitments. A weekend commentary will be in your inbox earlier this week.

All the best, 

Renato

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Market Commentary

Equity index futures trade lower with yields, dollar, and bitcoin. Most commodities were green.

  • Narratives around slower recovery rising.
  • Ahead is jobless claims data, Fed speak.
  • Positioning risks mounting case for lower.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower overnight alongside narratives surrounding a slowed economic recovery and stimulus reductions. 

Ahead is data on jobless claims (8:30 AM ET), as well as Fed-speak by Bowman (1:00 PM ET) and Williams (2:00 PM ET).

Graphic updated 6:30 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:30 AM ET, Thursday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on weak intraday breadth and divergent market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by sideways trade at the $4,510.00 pivot, the low end of a recent consolidation (i.e., balance) area. 

Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot a change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend). 

Modus operandi is responsive trade (i.e., fade the edges), rather than initiative trade (i.e., play the break).

To note, participants had a tough time separating value and expanding range lower.

This is evidenced by the minimal excess at yesterday’s regular trade low (RTH Low), coupled with an overnight response at the 20-day simple moving average (i.e., a visual level likely paid attention to by short-term, technically-driven market participants). 

In other words, we’re carrying forward the difficulty participants had, in days prior, to moving prices out and away from balance. The path of least resistance – at least in prior trade – was not down; stronger sellers are not yet on board.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

Value-Area Placement: Perception of value unchanged if value overlapping. Perception of value has changed if value not overlapping (i.e., outside day). Delay action in the former case.
Graphic: 30-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures and market liquidity, via Bookmap, for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY). Notice the volume delta (CVD) or buying and selling power as calculated by the difference in volume traded at the bid and offer.
Balance-Break Scenarios In Play: A change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend) has occurred.

Though we expect sideways to lower trade – for the time being – we monitor for rejection (i.e., return inside of balance) which portends a move higher, to the opposite end of the balance.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of peak growth and a moderation in the economic recovery, as well as non-seasonally aligned inflows, impactful options market dynamics, divergent sentiment, and fears of a mid-cycle transition.

The implications of these themes on price are contradictory. 

To elaborate, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C), and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) cautioned investors about equity outlooks. Of concern, in particular, is a rise in cases of the delta variant, tensions between inflation expectations and yields, as well as seasonality. 

Among other risks, as SqueezeMetrics summarizes, “[p]eople pretty much stopped buying S&P 500 puts [last] week. At the same time, people are overexposed to changes in VIX, and will be hurt more than usual if VIX starts moving up. Historically, this means SPX down, VIX up.”

Moreover, for today, given an increased potential for moderate volatility and responsive trade, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,495.00 high volume area (HVNode) pivot puts in play the $4,510.00 low volume area (LVNode). Initiative trade beyond the LVNode could reach as high as the $4,526.25 HVNode and $4,550.00 overnight high (ONH).

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,495.00 HVNode puts in play the $4,481.75 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $4,481.75 HVNode could reach as low as the $4,454.25 LVNode and $4,427.00 untested point of control (VPOC).

Note the developing volume-weighted average price (VWAP) pinch. VWAP is a metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs. We look to buy above a flat/rising VWAP pinch. Sell below a flat/declining VWAP pinch.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:30 AM ET. 

News And Analysis

Traders rush to dump China tech stocks as gaming targeted again.

Decision Guide: The ECB counts risks in setting bond-buying pace.

Aluminum notches fresh 13-year high on supply woes and demand.

China’s zero-COVID approach will aggravate rising corporate risks.

Fauci: We don’t even have “modestly good control” over COVID-19.

Coinbase threat shows there’s a new cryptocurrency sheriff in town.

White House eyeing increased hacking around the coming holidays.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For September 8, 2021

Abstract: Status quo briefly disrupted after equity index futures traded lower overnight. 

Alongside today’s light events calendar, participants ought to be most concerned with positioning risks and calls by large investment banks for cautiousness. A key pivot for today’s trade in the S&P 500 stands at $4,510.00.

Given the expected open, there may be limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

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Market Commentary

Equity index futures trade lower with yields, bitcoin, and copper. Gold, oil, bonds, VIX higher.

  • Big banks revised down growth forecasts.
  • Ahead: Job openings, Beige Book, credit.
  • Positioning risks mount case for volatility.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways to lower overnight alongside calls by large investment banks for cautiousness amidst outsized risks.

Ahead is data on job openings (10:00 AM ET), Beige Book (2:00 PM ET), and consumer credit (3:00 PM ET).

Graphic updated 6:30 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:30 AM ET, Wednesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on weak intraday breadth and divergent market liquidity metrics, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade to the low end of a recent consolidation area or balance. 

Overnight, despite the low end of that balance being briefly pierced, responsive buying surfaced pushing the S&P 500 back into Tuesday’s range. 

Balance-Break Scenarios In Play: A change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend) may occur.

Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area. Rejection (i.e., return inside of balance) portends a move to the opposite end of the balance.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of peak growth and a moderation in the economic recovery, as well as non-seasonally aligned inflows, impactful options market dynamics, divergent sentiment, and fears of a mid-cycle transition.

The implications of these themes on price are contradictory. 

To elaborate, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) – in addition to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), yesterday – are cautioning investors about equity outlooks. Of concern, in particular, is a rise in cases of the delta variant, tensions between inflation expectations and yields, as well as seasonality. 

Among other risks, as SqueezeMetrics summarizes, “[p]eople pretty much stopped buying S&P 500 puts [last] week. At the same time, people are overexposed to changes in VIX, and will be hurt more than usual if VIX starts moving up. Historically, this means SPX down, VIX up.”

Moreover, for today, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,510.00 regular trade high (RTH High) puts in play $4,526.25, a prominent high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as high as the $4,550.00 overnight high (ONH) and $4,556.25 Fibonacci extension.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,510.00 RTH High puts in play the $4,495.00 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the $4,495.00 HVNode could reach as low as the $4,481.75 HVNode and $4,454.25 LVNode.

We note that, as of 6:30 AM ET, prices are back in the most recent consolidation after finding responsive buyers at the overnight low (ONL) which corresponded with an anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), a metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs. Losing that ONL changes the tone, obviously.

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:15 AM ET.

News And Analysis

Ray Dalio says China opportunities can’t be neglected.

Delta variant is slowing reversal of some rating actions.

Rates stagnate; mortgage demand at lowest in months.

Investors should watch closely for peak in profit margin.

Weak jobs data could derail Fed’s bond tapering plans.

Coinbase fell after SEC plans to sue over new product.

Global mobility near post-pandemic high despite delta.

U.S. hits 75% of adults with at least one vaccine dose.

Evergrande dollar bonds fall after suspended payment.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Subscribe
Categories
Commentary

Weekly Brief For August 15, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures are set to open sideways Sunday after a divergent advance on light volume and poor structure.

  • Fundamental context – the good and bad.
  • Ahead a heavy week in terms of releases.
  • A narrow rally on unsupportive dynamics.
  • A simple way to hedge off your downside.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways to higher last week as the baseline Dow Jones Industrial Average is forecast to have peaked, according to Moody’s.

Ahead is data on the Empire State manufacturing index (8/16), retail sales (8/17), industrial production (8/17), capacity utilization (8/17), business inventories (8/17), NAHB home builders’ index (8/17), building permits (8/18), housing starts (8/18), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (8/18), jobless claims (8/19), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (8/19), and the index of leading economic indicators (8/19).

Graphic updated 9:30 AM ET Sunday. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. See here for more on the Dark Pool Index (DPI) and Gamma (GEX). A higher DPI approximation is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX approximation, the more volatility. SHIFT data used for options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if green and more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index from 0-100.

What To Expect: During the prior week’s trade, on weak intraday breadth and market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade above the $4,422.75 balance area high (BAH). This trade is significant because it validated a balance area breakout.

More On Balance-Break Scenarios: A change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend) is occurring.

Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area. Rejection (i.e., return inside of balance) portends a move to the opposite end of the balance.

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of peak growth, moderating inflation, renewed fiscal stimulus efforts, and increased odds of Fed tapering early next year. 

The implications of this fundamental context on price are contradictory; to elaborate, as Michael Gayed of The Lead-Lag Report recently said, narrow high yield spreads offer little potential for capital growth, and “conditions that favor higher volatility – the Fed backing off stimulus measures, the upcoming battle over the debt ceiling, high current inflation and/or longer-term deflation – could be not far off into the future.”

As an aside, this leads us into the narrative on the so-called shift from monetary to fiscal; in a conversation for a Benzinga article, Kai Volatility’s Cem Karsan said the following: when liquidity is removed, as policymakers look to fiscal policy to address inequality, for instance, corporations may have to worry about making money, again.

“We’ve seen this throughout history,” Karsan said in reference to this thesis playing out over the next decade, at least. “These cycles are a lot shorter than the monetary supply-side cycles but they tend to be very bad for multiples and great for economic growth.”

Adding, in Friday’s note, the theme of liquidity was discussed. Simply put, the gap between the rates of growth in the supply of money and the gross domestic product turned negative for the first time since 2018.

“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” said Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer.

Graphic: According to Bloomberg, “While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis — a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” — begs for caution.”

Moreover, for next week, given expectations of middling volatility and responsive trade, on factors like the upcoming August 20 monthly options expiration, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

Options Expiration (OPEX): Option expiries mark an end to pinning (i.e, the theory that market makers and institutions short options move stocks to the point where the greatest dollar value of contracts will expire worthless) and the reduction dealer gamma exposure.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,459.00 untested point of control (VPOC) puts in play the $4,463.25 minimal excess high. Initiative trade beyond the minimal excess high could reach as high as the $4,470.75 and $4,483.75 Fibonacci-derived price targets.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,459.00 VPOC puts in play the $4,439.00 VPOC. Initiative trade beyond the $4,439.00 VPOC could reach as low as $4,430.00 – a visual low likely generated by short-term (i.e., technically driven) participants who may be unable to defend retests – and the previously discussed $4,422.75 BAH.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 9:30 AM ET Sunday.

Weekly Trade Idea

Please Note: In no way is the below a trade recommendation. It’s a response to a solicitation for simple ways to hedge against a move lower, into the end of the month.

Options offer an efficient way to gain directional exposure. 

If an option buyer was short (long) stock, he or she could buy a call (put) to hedge upside (downside) exposure. Additionally, one can spread, or buy (+) and sell (-) options together, strategically.

Commonly discussed spreads include credit, debit, ratio, back, and calendar.

  • Credit: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +1 option farther out of the money.
  • Debit: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -1 option farther out of the money.
  • Ratio: Buy +1 option closer to the money. Sell -2 options farther out of the money. 
  • Back: Sell -1 option closer to the money. Buy +2 options farther out of the money.
  • Calendar: Sell -1 option. Buy +1 option farther out in time, at the same strike.

Typically, if bullish (bearish), sell at-the-money put (call) credit spread and/or buy a call (put) debit/ratio spread structured around target price. Alternatively, if the expected directional move is great (small), opt for a back spread (calendar spread). Also, if credit spread, capture 50-75% of the premium collected. If debit spread, capture 2-300% of the premium paid.

Be cognizant of risk exposure to direction (delta), time (theta), and volatility (vega). 

  • Negative (positive) delta = synthetic short (long). 
  • Negative (positive) theta = time decay hurts (helps).
  • Negative (positive) vega = volatility hurts (helps).

Trade Idea: BUY +1 BUTTERFLY SPX 100 (Weeklys) 31 AUG 21 4450/4400/4350 PUT @4.90 LMT.

Thesis: I’m neutral to bearish on the S&P 500 and I think the index may trade sideways to lower into the next month. I will structure a spread below the current index price, expiring in 15 days. I will buy the 4450 put option once (+1), sell the 4400 put option twice (-2), and buy the 4350 put option once (+1) for a $4.90 debit or so. Should the index not move to my target, I may lose the $490 debit. Should it move to $4,400.00, I could make $4,510.00 (i.e., the $5,000.00 payout less debit at entry) at expiry. Should the index move below $4,354.90, I may lose the entire $490 debit. My goal, with this spread, is to close for credit (e.g., $9.80-14.70) if the index moves lower. Note that this trade carries a positive theta at entry.

If necessary, I will hedge the position by either (A) buying S&P 500 futures, (B) narrowing strikes, (C) selling call credit to reduce cost, or (D) roll strikes up in price and out in time.

News And Analysis

Rates recovering; realtors see price moderating.

This turning point for markets merits a hard look.

Market disruptions as Fed balance sheet swells.

Job data eases fears of a slowdown in recovery.

U.S. high yield default rate lowest start in 14 yrs.

Delta variant will not impact Fed’s tapering plan.

What People Are Saying

https://twitter.com/CycleWacher/status/1426350481186635778?s=20

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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Commentary

Daily Brief For August 9, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures diverge, trading sideways to lower with commodities.

  • Themes: COVID-19, taper, infrastructure.
  • Ahead: JOLTS, Fed speak, and earnings.
  • Indices negate breakout and trade lower.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned sideways to lower alongside talk of infrastructure and taper, as well as a resurgence in the COVID-19 coronavirus.

Adding, in research put out by Nordea, Andreas Steno Larsen said: “Powell hinted that the Fed has already reached one out of two targets and that full employment and inflation ‘moderately exceeding the 2% target’ are not prerequisites for a taper decision.”

Moreover, ahead is data on job openings, earnings, and Fed speak. 

Graphic updated 6:30 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. See here for more on the Dark Pool Index and Gamma. A positive Dark Pool Index reading is bullish. At the same time, the higher (lower) the gamma, the less (more) volatility. SHIFT Search data used for options activity. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if green and more (less) positive then more (less) was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s Advance/Decline indicator.

What To Expect: As of 6:30 AM ET, Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open on a small gap just below prior-range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Gap Scenarios: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the best case outcome occurred – a balance area breakout – evidenced by trade above the $4,422.75 balance area high (BAH). This is significant because it marked a shift in tone (i.e., a transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend).

In such a case, the modus operandi shifts from responsive trade (i.e., fade the edges) to initiative trade (i.e., play the break). 

A failure to expand range in the indexes – as evidenced by Friday’s lackluster breakout and early trade Monday – portends a rotation back toward the lower end of the balance, which corresponds with the $4,365.25 low volume area (LVNode) in the S&P 500 Future.

Graphic: Market Internals (Advance/Decline, Up-Volume/Down-Volume, Tick) displayed as Peter Reznicek at ShadowTrader teaches.
Graphic: 65-minute candlestick charts of the cash-settled S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX), Nasdaq 100 (INDEX: NDX), Russell 2000 (INDEX: RUT), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX: DJI).

For today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,422.75 BAH puts in play the $4,429.25 high volume area (HVNode). Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as high as the $4,433.25 regular trade high (RTH High) and $4,438.50 fibonacci-derived price target.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,422.75 BAH puts in play the $4,417.25 low volume area (LVNode). Initiative trade beyond the LVNode could reach as low as the $4,411.00 untested point of control (VPOC) and $4,406.25 LVNode.

To note, the $4,406.25 level corresponds with a key anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP), a metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Graphic updated 6:38 AM ET.

News And Analysis

Moody’s Weekly Market Outlook: Jobs and talk of tapering plans.

Oil tumbles to three-week low as virus spread menaces outlook. 

Why it is too early to celebrate the blockbuster July jobs report.

The key lessons for traders from fund managers with Ken Katzen. 

The financial fragility of U.S. households and businesses hit low.

A large loosening of consumer underwriting standards continues.

U.S. labor market job loss mismatch could persist through 2022. 

China’s semiconductor self-reliance is posing overcapacity risks.

The technology upside from the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. 

Homeowners have a tough time finding themselves underwater.

VC tear continues with $61B invested and 53 new unicorns born.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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Commentary

Daily Brief For July 8, 2021

Market Commentary

Equity index futures explore lower prices, widening a developing balance area.

  • Traders edgy over virus variant, Fed action.
  • Ahead is data on jobs and consumer credit.
  • Internal divergence resolved in lower prices.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures liquidated as participants sought to price in anxieties surrounding the spread of COVID-19 variants as well as an evolution in monetary policy. 

“Worries about variant strains have hurt investor confidence that the pandemic’s effects on the global economy are truly past us,” Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg. “Our working theory is that we’re in the middle of a modest global growth scare.”

Today, also, participants get data on initial and continued jobless claims, as well as consumer credit.

Graphic updated 6:58 AM ET.

What To Expect: Thursday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity. Balance-break and gap scenarios are in play.

Balance-Break and/or Gap Scenarios: Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area.

Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Further, the overnight liquidation comes after participants had a tough time establishing value at higher prices. Despite steady exploration in days prior, internal divergences via breadth metrics, became more pronounced, while profile dynamics revealed weak commitment at higher prices and an abundance of poor structures (e.g., low-volume areas). 

Graphic: Equity index leaders rose in price as internal divergences – like the ratio of advancers to decliners – grew. Noting a bigger divergence in internals tracking Nasdaq issues. 
Graphic: Nasdaq-100 constituents fail to participate in price rise, via The Market Ear.

Also, yesterday, Federal Reserve officials, as evidenced by meeting minutes, were not yet ready to communicate their timeline for scaling back asset purchases. 

“The committee’s standard of ‘substantial further progress’ was generally seen as not having yet been met, though participants expected progress to continue,” according to minutes from the June 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting published Wednesday. “Various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings.”

Following closely after, rates on the 10 Year T-Note moved into trend support. Though usually perceived as a boon for stocks – especially growth names – as low rates have to potential to increase the present value of future earnings, all major equity indexes are off their highs.

Graphic: Treasury yields nearly three standard deviations below their mode-implied fair value, via The Market Ear.

Regardless of the cause – comments by the Fed, in addition to the spread of COVID-19 variants, geopolitical tensions, among other things – for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,285.00 micro-composite high volume area (HVNode), a pivot, participants may look for responses at the $4,299.00 Point of Control (POC), first. Thereafter, if higher, the $4,317.00 POC, which corresponds with the half-point of the overnight range comes next. If above $4,317.00, lookout. The S&P 500 may auction as high as the $4,340.75 HVNode. 

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below $4,285.00 puts in play the $4,263.25 low volume area (LVNode). Trade beyond that signpost may reach as low as the $4,247.75 LVNode and $4,229.00 VPOC.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: Daily candlestick charts of the S&P 500 (top left), Nasdaq 100 (top right), Russell 2000 (bottom left), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (bottom right).
Graphic: SHIFT search suggests participants were committing the most capital to call strikes at and below current prices in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (INDEX: NDX), yesterday. This activity may denote (1) stock replacement, (2) hedges for underlying short positions, or (3) speculation on the upside. Also, there was a meaningful bid in longer-dated puts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. This dynamic suggests participants, despite their commitment to higher prices, are hedging against near-term risks, like the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

News And Analysis

Economy | ECB unveils higher inflation goal that tolerates an overshoot. (BBG)

Politics | President Biden to speak on Afghanistan amid swift U.S. pullout. (REU)

Economy | Fed officials are split on easing quantitative easing program. (Axios)

Economy | Rates are down, jobs are up, but mortgage apps still decline. (MND)

Economy | External liquidity strains easing in some APAC economies. (Fitch)

Energy | OPEC gets ‘pass to lift oil prices’ as hedging losses hobble U.S. (FT)

COVID | Europe’s summer in peril as France warns on Spain, Portugal. (BBG)

Economy | Quest to define post-crisis global economic order is gaining. (BBG)

COVID | Tokyo games to go without fans as Japan declares emergency. (BBG)

What People Are Saying

https://twitter.com/VolatilityWiz/status/1412970258546233352?s=20
https://twitter.com/CycleWacher/status/1412870747748454405?s=20

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Markets | Crypto scammers rip off billions on pump-and-dump schemes. (BBG)

FinTech | Powell diary shows he met Coinbase CEO, crypto investor. (BBG)

Markets | A $9 trillion binge turns central banks into the biggest whales. (BBG)

FinTech | Momentum behind blockchain in public, private markets rises. (MM)

Markets | The LSE had its first direct listing of a technology company. (MM)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Subscribe
Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For June 11, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures in balance and divergent.

  • One Big Thing: Inflation temporary.
  • Ahead: UoM Consumer Sentiment.
  • Indices diverge and trade sideways.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned within prior range, after recent economic releases increased confidence in the notion that inflation will be temporary. Adding, participants are attempting to price in, also, the potential passage of an infrastructure deal, corporate tax talk, and cryptocurrency scrutiny.

Noting, ahead is data on sentiment.

Graphic updated 7:37 AM ET.

What To Expect: Friday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by a failed balance-area breakout.

After the release of the May 2021 CPI, participants attempted to initiate the S&P 500 up and out from balance. The attempt failed, confirmed by lackluster breadth, among other things. The minimal excess left at the 127.20% Fibonacci price extension suggests participants, which were likely short-term (i.e., technically-driven), either (1) lacked conviction or (2) were forced to liquidate because they were not getting paid.

Typical Balance-Break and/or Gap Scenarios: Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area.

Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator.

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

The resulting profile structure, also, was p-shaped; profile structures denote short-covering as old business looks to cover short exposure. Such activity, contrary to popular belief, can weaken a market as it removes demand (or future demand) from the market (i.e., participants with no short exposure, do not have to buy-to-close an existing position). 

Further, for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,227.00 high volume area (HVNode) puts in play the $4,249.00 minimal excess high. Initiative trade beyond that figure could reach as high as the $4,270.00 161.80% Fibonacci price extension. 

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,227.00 HVNode confirms a failed balance-area breakout. In such a case, the $4,213.75 low volume area (LVNode) comes into play first. Thereafter, if lower, participants ought to look for responses at the $4,206.25, $4,198.75, and $4,177.25 HVNodes.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: Daily candlestick charts of the S&P 500 (top left), Nasdaq 100 (top right), Russell 2000 (bottom left), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (bottom right). Nasdaq is relatively strong.
Graphic: Physik Invest maps out the purchase of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), yesterday. Activity in the options market was primarily concentrated in short-dated tenors, in put strikes as low as $420.
Graphic: SHIFT search suggests participants were most interested in put strikes at and below current prices in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX) and Nasdaq 100 Index (INDEX: NDX), yesterday. Noting that, in regards to the NDX, this is a change in tone. In the days prior, longer-dated NDX calls saw more interest. The puts could be used to speculate or hedge a participant’s downside. 

News And Analysis

Markets | Citadel Securities settles with fund on secret algorithm. (BBG)

Economy | Though inflation hotter than expected, it is temporary. (CNBC)

FinTech | Basel suggests strictest risk weighting for cryptocurrency. (BD)

Travel | Uber, Lyft driver shortage is boosting business for taxis. (BBG)

Politics | President Biden to meet Merkel at White House July 15. (Axios)

Energy | Oil thirst projected to surpass pre-COVID by end of 2022. (Axios)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Travel | Airlines are planning to plow billions into flying taxis. (BBG)

FinTech | Why buy-now-pay-later financing is so attractive. (Axios)

FinTech | Central banks are headed toward digital currency. (Axios)

FinTech | Online broker Webull considers $400M U.S. IPO. (BBG)

FinTech | Coinbase strikes deal to let you add crypto to 401K. (Fortune)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Subscribe
Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For June 1, 2021

Market Commentary

Index futures in price discovery.

  • Optimism around a recovery mounting.
  • Ahead: Data on manufacturing, OPEC.
  • Stock indexes traded higher overnight.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned higher overnight ahead of data on U.S. manufacturing.

Graphic updated at 6:30 AM EST

What To Expect: Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, on a gap outside of balance, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Balance-Break and/or Gap Scenarios: Monitor for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside of the balance area. Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator. Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.

Adding, during the prior week’s regular trade, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by responsive trade after a breakout above the $4,177.25 high volume area (HVNode). This is significant because that HVNode marked a pivot (i.e., above = bullish, below = bearish) on the composite profile.

Responsive Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) in response to prices below (above) areas of recent price acceptance.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Further, this bullish price action is happening in the face of supply chain uncertainties and rising inflation, fiscal and monetary tightening, COVID-19 concerns, political risks, and the like. 

However, research by JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), as well as Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), suggests equities are still in play. This thinking would help explain the increased interest in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 call options.

For today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above last Friday’s $4,217.75 overnight high (ONH) puts in play the $4,224.75 HVNode and $4,227.00 POC. Initiative trade beyond the two aforementioned signposts could reach as high as first the $4,238.00 overnight all-time high (ONH) and then, the $4,294.75 Fibonacci-derived price extension, a typical recovery target.

POCs: POCs (like HVNodes described above) are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit. 

Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,217.75 ONH puts in play the $4,209.00 point of control (POC). Then, if lower, comes the $4,177.25 and $4,153.25 HVNode. On a cross of the $4,153.25 HVNode, the $4,122.25 HVNode and $4,071.00 POC come into play, also.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: SHIFT search suggests participants were becoming more interested in call strikes at and above current prices in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX) and Nasdaq 100 Index (INDEX: NDX), last week.
Graphic: Physik Invest maps out the purchase of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), for the week prior. Activity in the options market was primarily concentrated in short-dated tenors, in strikes at and above $425.

News And Analysis

Markets | Meme stock AMC continues rally, jumping on a share sale. (CNBC)

Markets | Cyberattack hits the world’s largest meat processor units. (CNBC)

Politics | Buttigieg: mask mandates on planes are a matter of respect. (Hill)

Economy | Mortgage rates dip beneath 3% again, offering new savings. (Y!)

Economy | Inflation in the euro area climbed to 2% in the month of May. (BBG)

Energy | With oil majors under attack, OPEC’s hand has strengthened. (BBG)

Markets | Bitcoin is unlikely to escape regulation as authorities respond. (BBG)

Markets | Tesla’s vehicle price increases due to supply chain pressure. (REU)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Markets | The 60/40 strategy needs a modern makeover to win skeptics. (BBG)

FinTech | Nasdaq: upstarts are forcing legacy banks to evolve and adapt. (NDAQ)

FinTech | Coinbase Institutional planning the launch of a prime brokerage. (MM) 

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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Case Study: Trading A Balance-Breakout Failure In The Nasdaq 100

What Happened: On April 29, 2021, market participants attempted to move the Nasdaq 100 stock index from balance, an area of recent price acceptance, above a developing ledge, or flattened area on the composite volume profile.

Further, participants failed to find acceptance beyond the balance area, given the Nasdaq 100’s move back into the prior range. As a result, odds favored (1) sideways or (2) lower trade, as low as the balance area low (BAL) near $13,700.00.

Adding, a weak reaction by heavily-weighted index constituents to blowout earnings, as well as poor structure left behind prior price discovery, among other factors, such as the will to raise the Capital Gains Tax, suggested an increased potential to trade below the $13,700.00 BAL, into prior poor structures, or low volume areas (LVNodes), that ought to offer little-to-no support.

In response, the following sequence analysis unpacks how Physik Invest traded options tied to both the cash-settled Nasdaq 100 (INDEX: NDX) and Nasdaq 100 (CME: /NQ) future, leading up to the May 12, 2021 swing low. 

Note: Click here to view all transactions.

Sequence 1: On April 29, 2021, Physik Invest applied the balance-break and gap scenarios, monitoring for acceptance (i.e., more than 1-hour of trade) outside the balance area. 

To preface, gaps ought to fill quickly. 

Should they not, that’s a signal of weakness; leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator. 

Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction.

After a confirmed balance-breakout failure, Physik Invest bought the following structures for a $203.00 debit. At this point, if all legs were to remain out of the money (i.e., expire worthless) by May 21, 2021, the maximum loss would have been $203.00, approximately 1/5 of a standard risk unit, or the debit risked in a typical position.

  • 13500+1/13300-2/13100+1 NDX long put ratio spread
  • 14100+3/14110-6/14140+3 NDX short call ratio spread
  • 14400-1 /NQ short call

By 5/10/2021, the aforementioned position was closed for a $1,855.00 credit, an 813.80% return on the initial debit outlay.

The above put-side structure was initiated against the $13,300 high volume area, also a prior balance area boundary. The reason being, a structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

Summary: After a failed balance-breakout setup presented itself, Physik Invest financed long put-side structures targeting a test of $13,300, with short-call exposure, risking ⅕ of a standard risk unit in debit, over a timeframe of one month.

In total, the sequence of trades net a $1,621.71 profit after commissions and fees.

The above strategies were employed in accordance with Physik Invest’s core edge: the trade of ratioed, multi-leg strategies that combine short and long positions to reduce risk and increase returns.

Yes, in hindsight, one could have opted for static short exposure (e.g., selling stock to open a position). However, the risks tied to such strategies are immense in a regime characterized by increased volatility and uncertainty.

By leveraging the dynamics of time and volatility, through complex spreads, unwanted directional risks were reduced.

Reflection: Hindsight is 20/20.

Though the entry was perfectly timed, the exit was not; 1-day prior to expiry, the 13500/13300/13100 ratio spread – which was removed for a $21.11 credit – priced at nearly $90.00. 

The correct move would have been to initiate the position with up to four 13500/13300/13100 ratio spreads. Thereafter, as prices moved lower, the position would have been pared down enough to at least cover the cost of any remaining spreads.

Those remaining spreads would have been kept on as so-called “lottery tickets.”