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Administrative
Hey team, before we get started, let’s address the mismatch some observed last week with this letter’s levels and S&P quotes, versus what they saw at home.
It is basically the case that our charting platform rolled over to the December S&P 500 Index futures contract on September 9, 2022. This was about 1-week ahead of the expiry of the old contract on September 16, 2022.
Going forward, unless otherwise noted, 6-days prior to the expiration of a quoted contract, the levels and prices in this letter may reflect that of the new, father-dated contract.
As an aside, based on CME Group Inc’s (NASDAQ: CME) Equity Quarterly Roll Analyzer Tool, the pace of the E-mini S&P 500 (FUTURE: /ES) roll is far off of what it has historically been at this stage of the roll period.
This roll, too, caught your letter’s writer by surprise. Sorry!
Moving on, coverage this week may be sporadic due to some uncertain travel commitments. It is seeming very likely that there may not be a letter published on September 13 and 14, 2022.
Fundamental
Let’s get into it.
At its core, there’s a lot of stuff happening on the monetary and fiscal front. Guiding some of this action, on those fronts, are (geo)political happenings, the rising tide of populism, and beyond.
On the political fronts, Ukrainians “broke through weakened Russian lines, seizing the strategic railway hub of Kupiansk and the key staging area of Izyum,” Noah Smith explained in his letter.
Recent happenings illustrate “some important principles about the broader conflict unfolding across our world between liberalism and illiberalism,” as well as what a “successful defense of Ukraine” would do to hurt “the dawn of a new age of imperial expansionism,” something we’ve talked a lot about in past letters, alongside the growing deglobalization pulse.
The go-to on the implications of these conflicts, as well as the “burgeoning monetary order,” dubbed Bretton Woods III, has been Credit Suisse Group AG’s (NYSE: CS) Zoltan Pozsar who thinks the dollar “is entering a new and rockier phase” and what “matters more than access to dollars is access to commodities and actual things.”
From hereon, Pozsar thinks “commodity prices can go much higher, … and a dollar can get devalued in terms of commodities.”
In the face of geopolitical and supply chokepoints (further bolstered by such things as railroad strikes), as well as the fragmentation of “the physical world,” it’s no “longer appropriate to think about the world as a unified whole,” Pozsar explains.
Potentially at hand is a “self-reinforcing ‘dollar doom loop,’” Jon Turek of JST Advisors adds in the earlier quoted article. That’s big since, as we once explained, the dollar is the dominant currency for carry due to the easy monetary policies that removed the risk of a strong dollar.
“Non-US entities make dollar-based loans and transactions … because it’s considered more trustworthy than native fiat,” Bankless explained. “When there’s a disruption in global cash flows, there’s effectively a short squeeze on the dollar.”
Therefore, while efforts to stem inflation bolstered by supply chokepoints continue, “the stronger the dollar gets in comparison, the less tenable it becomes as a global reserve.”
That is pressure on the long-term trajectory of the dollar.
Ultimately, through the earlier mentioned developments, “breaking the dollar’s dominance could arguably help some countries avoid a tightening of financial conditions,” Bloomberg explains.
Accordingly, with “the dollar’s peak [] already in the rearview mirror,” concerns are amped in regard to how this impacts U.S. markets. It’s the case that U.S. market liquidity, as well as the dollar’s strong role as a reserve, put the S&P 500 at the center of the global carry regime.
Thus, an unwinding of carry may compound a market drop affecting nearly all risk assets, even housing, and prompting recession, something we shall unpack further in coming letters.
To round out this section, a bull case is likely characterized by less outsized interest rate hikes here, in the US, with quantitative tightening (QT) ramping “to its maximal caps” with no increase in “vol or yields,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) market intelligence.
However, if inflation remains hot – 8% and 9% – and supply disruptions remain sticky, the Fed may continue on its path of higher for longer. That means an “outsized rate hike cadence in Nov/Dec, bringing Fed Funds above 4.0% … and QT put[ting] upward pressure on yields.”
Positioning
Demand for protection and re-entry into shorts was the context for selling that culminated in an S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) low at $3,900.00 last week.
It’s at this level, “where the demand for put options was concentrated,” analysis providers like SpotGamma saw “support” and, “absent an exogenous catalyst,” S&P 500 stability.
From thereon, into the end of the week, SpotGamma adds that “positive delta hedging flows” bolstered a “market move away from the $3,900.00 support.” Tools like SpotGamma’s HIRO showed volatility selling and this validated a SpotGamma call for “follow-on bullishness.”
Nonetheless, in light of the above fundamental and positioning contexts, after derivatives expiries this month, the stage is likely set for larger two-way ranges.
Technical
As of 7:20 AM ET, Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), in the S&P 500, is likely to open in the upper part of a balanced overnight inventory, outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.
In the best case, the S&P 500 trades higher.
Any activity above the $4,107.00 POC puts into play the $4,136.75 MCPOC. Initiative trade beyond the MCPOC could reach as high as the $4,189.25 LVNode and $4,231.00 VPOC, or higher.
In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower.
Any activity below the $4,107.00 POC puts into play the $4,071.00 VPOC. Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as low as the $4,018.75 HVNode and $3,991.00 VPOC, or lower.
Click here to load today’s key levels into the web-based TradingView charting platform. Note that all levels are derived using the 65-minute timeframe. New links are produced, daily.
Definitions
Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test.
If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.
POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
MCPOCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous day sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
About
After years of self-education, strategy development, mentorship, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets.
Capelj also develops insights around impactful options market dynamics at SpotGamma and is a Benzinga reporter.
Some of his works include conversations with ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, investors Kevin O’Leary and John Chambers, FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, ex-Bridgewater Associate Andy Constan, Kai Volatility’s Cem Karsan, The Ambrus Group’s Kris Sidial, among many others.
Disclaimer
In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.
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