Tag: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Commentary

Daily Brief For February 27, 2023

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Graphic updated 7:45 AM ET. Sentiment Risk-On if expected /MES open is above the prior day’s range. /MES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of this letter. Click here for the latest levels. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) with the latter calculated based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. The lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. Click to learn the implications of volatility, direction, and moneyness. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. The CBOE VIX Volatility Index (INDEX: VVIX) reflects the attractiveness of owning volatility. UMBS prices via MND. Click here for the economic calendar.

Positioning

In The Second Leg Down: Strategies For Profiting After A Market Sell-Off, there is one passage on the inaccuracy of normal distributions in markets and serial correlation, as well as the underpricing of rare events. In that same passage, Nassim Nicholas Taleb is credited for his advocacy on portfolio allocations to safe short-term government bonds and high-risk speculative bets through which “you could lose no more than your initial investment.”

Naturally, this leads to Exotic Options and Hybrids. Structured notes, to quote chapter two, are “composed of a non-risky asset providing a percentage of protected capital and a risky asset offering leverage potential.”

The structure, as a whole, is not risky in the absence of defaults. The bond, which is bought at a discount, increases in value until maturity. The difference between the initial value to allocate (100% of notional) and the bond purchase price is allocated to the leverage (e.g., options) component of the structure.

Graphic: Retrieved from Exotic Options and Hybrids.

This type of capital-protected structure is particularly attractive right now, given the interest rate environment. That’s because high-interest rates decrease the initial value of the bond. This means we can allocate more to leveraged bets, for example.

During the life of the structured note, the value of the non-risky part increases when interest rates decrease. At maturity, the value of the bond component is equal to 100% of the notional while the value of the riskier part of the note is “non-linear and fluctuates depending on many market parameters such as the underlying’s spot, interest rates, borrowing costs, dividend yield or volatility.”

Graphic: Retrieved from Exotic Options and Hybrids. For illustration only.

Last week, IPS Strategic Capital’s Pat Hennessy wrote a thread on how to apply this information. 

Basically, with interest rates near 5% at the front of the yield curve, and traditional portfolio constructions performing poorly, defined-outcome investing is attractive. 

With $1,000,000 to invest and rates at ~5% (i.e., $50,000 is 5% of $1,000,000), one could “purchase 1000 USTs [or S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) Box Spreads] which will have a value of $1 million at maturity for the price of $950,000.”

Graphic: Retrieved from IPS Strategic Capital’s Pat Hennessy.

With $50,000 left in cash, one can use options for leveraged exposure to an asset of their choosing, Hennessy explained. Should these options expire worthless, the $50,000 gain from USTs, at maturity, provides “a full return of principal.”

In an example, Hennessy presented a structure providing 60% of the upside gain of the S&P 500 with full principal protection should markets fall. Though “you may initially scoff at 60%, [] keep in mind that historically 60/40 has captured between 60-70% of the upside of equities.”

Image
Graphic: Retrieved from IPS Strategic Capital’s Pat Hennessy.

If you’re bearish or unopinionated, Hennessy presented capital-protected structures that make money if the market moves lower (e.g., instead of buying a call option on the SPX, buy put options or a put options spread) or sideways (e.g., sell defined-risk option condor structures).

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Graphic: Retrieved from IPS Strategic Capital’s Pat Hennessy.

Markets have a tendency to move big and continue moving big in the same direction, over the very short term, hence the “fat tails in the distribution over short horizons,” to quote The Second Leg Down. Given this, your letter writer can use his analyses to capitalize big on underpricing and participate in upside or downside through a series of short-dated options bets (e.g., butterflies, broken-wing butterflies, ratio spreads, back spreads, and beyond) that, in time, may return in excess of ~10 times the initial investment. Should nothing happen, then he walks away with his principal. That’s trading made less stressful.

Have a great day. If you enjoyed today’s letter, consider sharing it with your friends!

Graphic: Via Banco Santander SA (NYSE: SAN) research, the return profile, at expiry, of a classic 1×2 (long 1, short 2 further away) ratio spread.

Technical

As of 7:40 AM ET, Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), in the S&P 500, is likely to open in the upper part of a positively skewed overnight inventory, outside of the prior day’s range, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.

The S&P 500 pivot for today is $3,992.75. 

Key levels to the upside include $4,003.25, $4,012.25, and $4,024.75.

Key levels to the downside include $3,979.75, $3,965.25, and $3,949.00.

Disclaimer: Click here to load the updated key levels via the web-based TradingView platform. New links are produced daily. Quoted levels likely hold barring an exogenous development.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

Definitions

Volume Areas: Markets will build on areas of high-volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for a period of time, this will be identified by a low-volume area (LVNodes). The LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test.

If participants auction and find acceptance in an area of a prior LVNode, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to the nearest HVNodes for more favorable entry or exit.

POCs: Areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

MCPOCs: Denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

About

The author, Renato Leonard Capelj, works in finance and journalism.

Capelj spends the bulk of his time at Physik Invest, an entity through which he invests and publishes free daily analyses to thousands of subscribers. The analyses offer him and his subscribers a way to stay on the right side of the market. Separately, Capelj is an options analyst at SpotGamma and an accredited journalist.

Capelj’s past works include conversations with investor Kevin O’Leary, ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Lithuania’s Minister of Economy and Innovation Aušrinė Armonaitė, former Cisco chairman and CEO John Chambers, and persons at the Clinton Global Initiative.

Connect

Direct queries to renato@physikinvest.com. Find Physik Invest on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, and Instagram. Find Capelj on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram. Only follow the verified profiles.

Calendar

You may view this letter’s content calendar at this link.

Disclaimer

Do not construe this newsletter as advice. All content is for informational purposes. Capelj and Physik Invest manage their own capital and will not solicit others for it.

Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For July 7, 2022

The daily brief is a free glimpse into the prevailing fundamental and technical drivers of U.S. equity market products. Join the 300+ that read this report daily, below!

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Graphic updated 7:00 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of the following section. Levels may have changed since initially quoted; click here for the latest levels. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. Learn the implications of volatility, direction, and moneyness. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

Fundamental

An incredibly busy past few months with what it seems are back-to-back historic developments.

For instance, just this week, crypto broker Voyager Digital (OTC: VYGVF) filed for bankruptcy. “Impaired” will be account holders who likely won’t be “getting back exactly what they’re owed,” as reported by Bloomberg.

This is on the heels of crypto market volatility affecting some of Voyager’s largest borrowers like Three Arrows Capital, an embattled hedge fund. Voyager lent deposits to these parties at rates of interest that were ultra-high. Customers were then, accordingly, paid high rates.

However, this was done under the impression that the customer holdings were liquid, easy to access, and not subject to counterparty risks. That didn’t happen. Voyager, like others, was “making a lot of unsecured or undersecured loans.”

What’s the takeaway, here? Bloomberg’s Matt Levine explains well. 

“If supposedly safe crypto brokerages keep failing and customers keep losing money, that is bad for the whole ecosystem; if your money isn’t safe with any crypto brokerage then you might just not buy crypto.”

Others in the ecosystem have continued to lever on the supposed successes of crypto. The failure of Voyager, among others, may have knock-on effects to be felt much later in the cycle.

Another historic development was the London Metal Exchange’s (LME) cancellation of billions of dollars in trades. This made whole large bettors in that ecosystem, all the while dinging liquidity providers, badly.

Some, including algorithmic fund Transtrend, left the LME as they could no longer trust it with client funds.

The question is what now? What’s the next big thing and, more importantly, will it have an impact on the traditional markets we watch?

As talked about in past analyses, it is over the last four decades that monetary policies were a go-to for supporting the economy. From that, created was “a disinterest and unimportance to cash flows.”

The commitment to reducing liquidity and credit has consequences on the real economy and asset prices, accordingly, which rose and kept the deflationary pressures of policies at bay.

It is elevated volatility, persistent declines, slower tightening processes abroad, among other things, that are to prompt investors to lower their selling prices in risk(ier) assets (e.g., options bets, metals, cryptocurrency and stablecoins, equities, bonds) and compete for cash.

Graphic: Via TradingView. Retrieved by Physik Invest.

This all is to continue bolstering the dollar’s surge to some of its strongest levels in years.

Graphic: Retrieved from Aksel Kibar, CMT.

As well as further douse inflation (which is likely to peak on inventories bloat and a “supply gut”) and, eventually, prompt the Federal Reserve to reverse its aggressive rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) path.

Graphic: Posted by Joe Weisenthal. “Wheat has erased all of its gains for the year. Also, it looks like corn and soy are rolling over.”

“It is starting,” Nassim Nicholas Taleb said online. “I’ve seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I’ve never seen a shortage not followed by a glut.”

ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, who was very early to call the peak inflation, puts forth that “If inventories and stock prices are leading indicators for employment and wages, … then fears of cost-push inflation a la 1970’s should disappear during the next six months.”

Positioning

Thus far, we’re far into a dot-com type collapse, albeit one that has happened “underneath the surface of the indices,” per Simplify Asset Management’s Mike Green, as those largest stocks still are recipients of strong passive flows.

Graphic: SqueezeMetrics’ Dark Pool Index shows a trend in heightened implicit buying support.

The upcoming earnings season is likely to shed clarity with respect to corporates’ ability to weather or pass on higher costs. It is possible, as some put forth, that there is a broad “earnings compression,” deepening the de-rate in the face of what has been a “multiple compression.”

From a positioning perspective, so awing is the absence of heightened demand for downside skew, all the while that, on the upside, is bid probably due to the reach for bets on a ferocious bear market rally.

Graphic: Posted by SpotGamma. “30-day ATM SPY IV vs the VIX and while this plot has a bit of noise it seems to very closely resemble @Nations_Indexes VIX/VOLI measurement. One interpretation here is that OTM options aren’t trading for much premium over ATM (flat skew).”

As explained yesterday, it makes sense to be a buyer of volatility, albeit via complex structures. 

For instance, buying volatility on the upside that is closer to current prices and selling that which is farther out (if bullish). And (if bearish), opting for calendars (as it is volatility in the shortest of maturities being sold heavily), back spreads, and the like.

Read: Trading Volatility, Correlation, Term Structure and Skew by Colin Bennett.

Graphic: Posted by SpotGamma. “TSLA open interest continues to decline, particularly on the put side as the stock trades near 1year lows. Interestingly at-the-money IV remains elevated to levels going back to the days of the $1200 call gamma squeeze.”

On a more granular level, after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, participants added to their put sales and call buys, at the index level. The hedging of this does more to take from potential realized volatility. 

Graphic: Pictured is SpotGamma’s Hedging Impact of Real-Time Options (HIRO) indicator.

At its core, though, the market is at a pivot and losing the $3,800.00 S&P 500 area likely does more to bolster the creep in realized (RVOL) volatility, versus that which is implied (IVOL), all else equal.

Graphic: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) historical (orange) and implied (white) volatility via Interactive Brokers Group Inc’s (NASDAQ: IBKR) Trader Workstation.

Technical

As of 6:45 AM ET, Thursday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), in the S&P 500, is likely to open in the middle part of a balanced overnight inventory, inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades higher.

Any activity above the $3,859.00 overnight POC puts into play the $3,883.25 LVNode. Initiative trade beyond the LVNode could reach as high as the $3,909.25 MCPOC and $3,943.25 HVNode, or higher.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower.

Any activity below the $3,859.00 overnight POC puts into play the $3,831.00 VPOC. Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as low as the $3,800.25 LVNode and $3,774.75 HVNode, or lower.

Click here to load today’s key levels into the web-based TradingView charting platform. Note that all levels are derived using the 65-minute timeframe. New links are produced, daily.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

Definitions

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on areas of high volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure, identified as low volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test. 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume (LVNodes), then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent in a prior day session. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

MCPOCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous day sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Volume-Weighted Average Prices (VWAPs): A metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, mentorship, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets.

Capelj also develops insights around impactful options market dynamics at SpotGamma and is a Benzinga reporter.

Some of his works include conversations with ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, investors Kevin O’Leary and John Chambers, FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, former Bridgewater Associate Andy Constan, Kai Volatility’s Cem Karsan, The Ambrus Group’s Kris Sidial, among many others.

Disclaimer

In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.