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Commentary

Daily Brief For May 4, 2021

Daily commentary for U.S. broad market indices.

Market Commentary

Index futures attempt to exit balance.

  • Global reopening, vaccinations rising.
  • Ahead: Vehicle Sales, Factory orders.
  • Markets balance, position for resolve.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures rejected a breakout attempt and explored lower prices, overnight.

Ahead are earnings, data on trade, factory orders, durable goods, and Fed speak.

Graphic updated 7:30 AM ET.

What To Expect: Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior -range and -value, suggesting the potential for directional opportunity. 

Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade below the $4,186.75 balance boundary, which is significant because it denoted a clear, visual break-out point.

Adding to our narrative, according to Joseph Fahmy, Investment Advisory Representative at Zor Capital, from here on out, either (1) growth stocks stabilize and move higher, or (2) weak breadth pulls down the overall market. 

Supporting this belief is a weak reaction to earnings, interest rate volatility, tax selling, as well as stretched sentiment.

Still, the market is in a technically bullish position. A break below the S&P 500’s minimal excess low at $4,110.50 would suggest a change in conditions and the potential for lower.

Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices.

Moreover, for today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; crossing back into the prior day’s trading range, marked by the $4,181.00 regular-trade low (RTH Low), targets the $4,189.00 POC. Initiative trade beyond the POC could reach as high as the $4,194.25 low volume area (LVNode), and then the $4,205 POC. 

POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.

Initiative Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) within or above the previous day’s value area.

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). 

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below $4,167.25 could reach as low as the $4,153.25 and $4,137.25 high volume areas (HVNodes).

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: Physik Invest maps out the purchase of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), for May 3. Activity in the options market was primarily concentrated in short-dated tenors, in strikes as low as $413.00, which corresponds with $4,130.00 in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX).

News And Analysis

Politics | Biden open to options on spending as Congress takes over. (BBG)

Economy | Near-term volatility in inflation as economic restart progresses. (BLK)

Markets | Robinhood raked in $331 million from clients’ trading activity. (CNBC)

Economy | Metrics show strong U.S. business sentiment hit a snag in April. (Axios)

Economy | Treasury quadruples borrowing estimates to pay for stimulus. (BBG)

Trade | Truckers expect the U.S. transport capacity crunch to persist. (WSJ)

Banking | Cash-rich U.S. banks moving to reduce corporate deposits. (FT)

Commodities | Broad commodities price boom amplifies ‘supercycle’ talk. (FT)

Economy | Yellen to appoint Senior Fed official to run top bank regulator. (WSJ)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Media | Why Verizon sold AOL and Yahoo for 1% of their peak valuation. (Axios)

FinTech | Mastercard adds 6 startups to Start Path accelerator program. (CT)

FinTech | Canada-based Wealthsimple raises $610M at a $4B valuation. (TC)

FinTech | Founder at Miami-based accelerator talks exits, #MiamiTech. (BZ)

About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, Canadian businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity. 

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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