Categories
Commentary

Daily Brief For April 20, 2021

Daily commentary for U.S. broad market indices.

Market Commentary

Index futures auction lower, attempt to validate higher prices.

  • Investors weigh earnings, taxes.
  • Light calendar, earnings pick up.
  • Indices correct in time and price.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower overnight as investors weighed the risks of exposure given the potential for surprise earnings results and a recent spike in virus cases, among other factors. 

What To Expect: Tuesday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a higher-than-normal potential for directional opportunity. 

During the prior day’s regular trade, the worst-case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade below the $4,171.00 VPOC, which is significant because it marks an area where participants found it most valuable to conduct business during a prior session. Thereafter, overnight, participants discovered lower prices and solicited responsive buying at the $4,137.00 high-volume area (HVNode).

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test).

If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.

This price action is occurring on the heels of an outstanding rally, fueled by vaccine rollouts, supportive central banks, and improved consumer finances. In a statement, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) expressed its optimism on a sustained equity market boom. 

“We would not be cutting stocks exposure on a 6-9 months horizon, and continue to see any dips as buying opportunities,” JPMorgan analysts said. “We would not expect to see a more sustained pullback before Q4.”

Further, as stated in prior commentaries, equity markets are positioned bullish, but there exists an increased potential to correct in time and price. Should there be a drastic turn and spike in volatility, participants must be ready to accept the possibility of a violent liquidation, given poor structure left behind prior price discovery and increased put selling, among other factors

Price Discovery (One-Timeframe Or Trend): Elongation and range expansion denotes a market seeking new prices to establish value, or acceptance (i.e., more than 30-minutes of trade at a particular price level).

For today, participants can trade from the following frameworks. 

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,142.00 regular trade low (RTH Low) targets the $4,155.00 HVNode. Initiative trade beyond the HVNode could reach as high as $4,167.50 overnight high (ONH).

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below $4,142.00 targets the $4,122.75 HVNode. Thereafter, if lower, participants can look for a repair of the poor structure sitting at the $4,113.00 low. Trading below $4,104.00 suggests a test as low as the $4,069.25 HVNode is likely.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
Graphic: Physik Invest maps out the purchase of call and put options in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), for April 19, 2021. Activity in the options market was primarily concentrated in short-dated tenors, in strikes as low as $403, which corresponds with $4,030 in the cash-settled S&P 500 Index (INDEX: SPX).

News And Analysis

Economy | Equity markets haven’t priced in Biden’s corporate tax hikes, yet. (BBG)

Recovery | More than half of U.S. adults vaccinated. Why are cases rising? (AB)

Trade | Why the chip shortage is so hard to overcome despite recent efforts. (WSJ)

Economy | Fannie Mae seeing a brighter outlook for housing and economy. (MND)

Economy | Fearing foreclosure crisis, watchdog cracks down on servicers. (REU)

Politics | Xi is challenging U.S. global leadership, warns against decoupling. (BBG)

Markets | Dogecoin’s surge was fueled by retail and institutional participants. (TB)

Markets | Credit Suisse halts trader’s fund on risk concerns, post-Archegos. (BBG)

Markets | China’s yuan is overvalued, and that could stoke global inflation. (BBG)

Markets | Stock shorts collapsed as no hedge fund wants head ripped off. (BBG)

What People Are Saying

Innovation And Emerging Trends

Markets | Large hidden bond market problem poses a whole new set of risks. (BBG)

FinTech | Here is how the big brokerage firms are breaking into bitcoin trading. (TB)

FinTech | Intercontinental Exchange-owned Bakkt targeting innovation, NFTs. (BZ)

Markets | The OCC has announced a reduction of its clearing fee to two cents. (TM)

Venture | Where the startup world sees money in the $2.3T infrastructure plan. (CN)

 About

Renato founded Physik Invest after going through years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error. His work reporting in the finance and technology space, interviewing leaders such as John Chambers, founder, and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, Canadian businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others, afforded him the perspective and know-how very few come by.

Having worked in engineering and majored in economics, Renato is very detailed and analytical. His approach to the markets isn’t built on hope or guessing. Instead, he leverages the unique dynamics of time and volatility to efficiently act on opportunity.

 Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

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