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Commentary

Daily Brief For December 19, 2022

Daily commentary for U.S. broad market indices.

Physik Invest’s Daily Brief is read by thousands of subscribers. You, too, can join this community to learn about the fundamental and technical drivers of markets.

Graphic updated 8:00 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day’s range. /ES levels are derived from the profile graphic at the bottom of this letter. Levels may have changed since initially quoted; click here for the latest levels. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) with the latter calculated based on where the prior day’s reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. Click to learn the implications of volatility, direction, and moneyness. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day’s NYSE Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

Administrative

After a near-month-long hiatus, Physik Invest’s Market Intelligence letters will restart. The letter was paused due to the author’s travel commitments to New York and Paris. Apologies for this inconvenience. Further below are some things you need to know.

Graphic: Renato travels to London, Lisbon, New York, and Paris over the past three months resulting in an off-and-on Market Intelligence newsletter.

To start, you may view this letter’s content calendar HERE. This content calendar is interactive and will enable you to see what content will be covered in future letters.

Based on the calendar, the following is what you can expect for the rest of this week.

  • Monday 12/19 – Author and letter updates.
  • Tuesday 12/20 – Deep dive into fundamental contexts.
  • Wednesday 12/21 – Deep dive into positioning contexts.
  • Thursday 12/22 – Deep dive into technical contexts.
  • Friday 12/23 – Deep dive into trades working well.

The letter will then be off on Monday, December 26, due to the closure of markets, per the NYSE’s holidays and trading hours calendar, and resume on Tuesday, December 27. The calendar will update with content for the rest of this month by end of this week.

From hereon, a link to the content calendar will be included at the bottom of the newsletter, next to the about, contact, and disclaimer sections.

Regarding questions and criticisms of the letter, please feel free to comment below or connect with the author offline via email (renato@physikinvest.com) or Discord (Renato Capelj#8625). Please allow a few business days for a response.

Technical

As of 8:00 AM ET, Monday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), in the S&P 500, is likely to open in the middle part of a positively skewed overnight inventory, inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Our S&P 500 pivot for today is $3,893.75. 

Key levels to the upside include $3,909.25, $3,926.50, and $3,960.25. 

Key levels to the downside include $3,867.75, $3,838.25, and $3,816.75.

Click here to load today’s key levels into the web-based TradingView platform. All levels are derived using the 65-minute timeframe. New links are produced, daily.

Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

Definitions

Volume Areas: Markets will build on areas of high-volume (HVNodes). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will be identified by low-volume areas (LVNodes). LVNodes denote directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test.

If participants auction and find acceptance in an area of a prior LVNode, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to HVNodes for favorable entry or exit.

MCPOCs: Denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent over numerous sessions. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.


About

In short, an economics graduate working in finance and journalism.

Capelj spends most of his time as the founder of Physik Invest through which he invests and publishes daily analyses to subscribers, some of whom represent well-known institutions.

Separately, Capelj is an equity options analyst at SpotGamma and an accredited journalist interviewing global leaders in business, government, and finance.

Past works include conversations with investor Kevin O’Leary, ARK Invest’s Catherine Wood, FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, Lithuania’s Minister of Economy and Innovation Aušrinė Armonaitė, former Cisco chairman and CEO John Chambers, and persons at the Clinton Global Initiative.

Contact

Direct queries to renato@physikinvest.com or Renato Capelj#8625 on Discord.

Calendar

You may view this letter’s content calendar at this link.

Disclaimer

Do not construe this newsletter as advice. All content is for informational purposes.

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