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Commentary

Market Commentary For 12/8/2020

What Happened: Alongside concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19, U.S. index futures extended lower, with the S&P 500 auctioning into a composite high-volume node, the market’s most recent perception of value.

What Does It Mean: During Monday’s regular trading in the S&P 500, initiative buyers failed to extend range; the session ended in prior balance and range with minimal excess denoting the non-presence of conviction.

Overnight, participants auctioned back below the $3,682.00 balance-area boundary, before responsive buying surfaced near the $3,667.75 high-volume node. Given that the S&P 500 is trading within last week’s balance area, the potential exists for a failed break.

What To Expect: In light of the re-entry into balance, the following frameworks will apply for today’s trade.

In the best case, if participants manage to further spend time and build value above the $3,682.00 balance boundary, then initiative buyers remain in control — the nearest upside level of interest is the projection near $3,710.00.

In the worst case, auctioning further below the $3,667.75 high-volume node would denote a clear change in conviction. As a result participants would look to whether the $3,640.00 balance boundary holds. Breaking that reference puts the rally on hold.

Levels Of Interest:  $3,682.00 balance-area boundary.

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Commentary

Market Commentary For 11/18/2020

What Happened: Alongside news Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) would apply for emergency authorization within days, U.S. index futures auctioned to the high end of this week’s range, suggesting further balance and acceptance of higher prices.

What Does It Mean: As of now, the S&P 500 index future is trading near $3,620, the high-end of the weekly range that’s been dominated by short-term money. This is evidenced by the weak, mechanical highs and lows over the past two days.

Given the non-presence of higher-time frame participation, there is little directional conviction going into Wednesday’s regular trading session.

Further, after rejecting the low-volume area beneath $3,600, the S&P 500 remains in balance; as a result, if participants manage to spend time and build value outside of the balance area between $3,585 and $3,630, then odds favor range expansion. Otherwise, the market will remain in balance, favoring short-term, responsive trade.

Levels Of Interest: 100% projection of the balance-area at $3,650, $3,630 balance-area high, $3,585 balance-area low.