Market Commentary
Equity indexes were sideways to higher with most commodities, yields, and the dollar.
- Ahead: NFP, unemployment, and more.
- Participants await context on Fed taper.
- Indexes positioned for directional move.
- Market is closed Monday, September 6.
What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned higher overnight ahead of Friday’s jobs report which may provide market participants context with respect to the Federal Reserve’s intent to de-stimulate.
Ahead is data on nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings (8:30 AM ET), as well as Markit services PMI (9:45 AM ET) and ISM services index (10:00 AM ET).
What To Expect: As of 6:40 AM ET, Friday’s regular session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open outside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a potential for immediate directional opportunity.
Adding, during the prior day’s regular trade, on positive intraday breadth and divergent market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade sideways above the $4,526.25 level, a prominent high volume area (HVNode).
This is significant because of acceptance, or a willingness to transact at higher prices. We’re carrying forward the presence of poor structure left behind prior trade.
Gap Scenarios Likely In Play: Gaps ought to fill quickly. Should they not, that’s a signal of strength; do not fade. Leaving value behind on a gap-fill or failing to fill a gap (i.e., remaining outside of the prior session’s range) is a go-with indicator. Auctioning and spending at least 1-hour of trade back in the prior range suggests a lack of conviction; in such a case, do not follow the direction of the most recent initiative activity.
Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of Friday’s jobs report. This report may have strong implications on the equity market; to elaborate, the data release will provide market participants color with respect to the Federal Reserve’s intent to wind down stimulus.
Forecasted is the addition of 725,000 jobs in August, according to Bloomberg, a moderate pace in comparison to months prior.
A strong report would suggest a success, on the part of businesses, to hire after months of crunched labor supply. On the other hand, “The softening in employment activity would be consistent with other economic data that have weakened since the surge in Covid case counts due to the delta variant,” Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) economists said.
Bloomberg’s Katie Greifeld adds: “[R]ates are more likely to push higher on the heels of an unexpectedly strong jobs print than they are to fall in the wake of a weak one. With that dynamic in mind, bet against bonds.”
To note, a softer report may pause any talk of taper to asset purchases. A reduction in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet – a removal of liquidity – could prompt a sort of risk-off scenario in which participants try to get ahead of whatever cascading reactions may come with the taper.
In other words, as Kai Volatility’s Cem Karsan explained to me: “It’s not a coincidence that the mid-February to mid-March 2020 downturn literally started the day after February expiration and ended the day of March quarterly expiration. These derivatives are incredibly embedded in how the tail reacts and there’s not enough liquidity, given the leverage, if the Fed were to taper.”
Moreover, for today, given an increased potential for higher volatility and initiative trade, participants may make use of the following frameworks.
In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,526.25 high volume area (HVNode) puts in play the $4,545.75 overnight high (ONH). Initiative trade beyond the ONH puts in play the $4,556.25 and $4,592.25 Fibonacci extensions.
In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,526.25 HVNode puts in play the $4,510.00 level, a regular trade high (RTH High), and gap. Initiative trade beyond the RTH High and gap puts in play the $4,481.75 HVNode and $4,454.25 LVNode.
Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process. Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit. Initiative Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) within or above (below) the previous day’s value area.
News And Analysis
Moody’s Weekly Market Outlook on Ida, gas, and inflation expectations.
Short bets rise against consumer discretionary stocks as stimulus fades.
Traders set to test Powell’s push to delink hikes from bond-buying taper.
Three doses could become a standard COVID regimen, Dr. Fauci says.
The Western U.S. drought is forecasted to continue through fall at least.
U.S. structured finance issuance totaled $57B in August, rising 65% YoY.
What People Are Saying
About
After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets.
Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O’Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.
Disclaimer
At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.